Anthropic Surpasses OpenAI in Valuation and Files IPO Papers with the SEC

OpenAI, the artificial intelligence (AI) company, said on Monday that it had also filed the necessary documents with the SEC. A specific timing for the IPO had "not yet been decided." The step could well "take a while yet." The financing need is enormous: OpenAI has taken in $185.9 billion in investments since its founding, significantly more than Anthropic.

Valuation and Investments

Behind the scenes, the two companies are not just competing on technology. It's not only about advancing artificial intelligence, but also about raising the necessary funds for their financing. Harrison Rolfes, an analyst at PitchBook, estimates Anthropic's revenue this year at $47 billion. "More than 1,000 companies are already spending more than $1 million per year each on Anthropic" – an indication of its strong position in the enterprise customer segment.

In the end-consumer market, however, OpenAI still leads. The ChatGPT provider counts more than 900 million weekly users. Pedro Domingos, professor emeritus of computer science and engineering at the University of Washington and author of the book "The Master Algorithm," assesses the situation as follows: "Anthropic is further ahead in enterprise services, and that's where most of the money will come from. But things can change quickly."

Different Approaches to Computing Power and the Military

The two rivals are also taking different paths when it comes to computing power. Anthropic borrows compute capacity from Amazon and, more recently, from Elon Musk's Colossus data center. OpenAI, in turn, is primarily supplied with computing power by Microsoft, which is also a stakeholder in OpenAI. "Maybe OpenAI should rent computing power to Anthropic, but the two companies hate each other too much for that," says Domingos.

The two firms are also going separate ways in the defense business. Dario Amodei, who co-founded Anthropic after his split with OpenAI in 2021, has drawn red lines for the U.S. military: Claude is not to be used for mass surveillance or automated weapons systems. OpenAI software, by contrast, is set to be used by the Pentagon going forward. The Pentagon had previously classified Anthropic as a "supply chain security risk" – a designation usually reserved for foreign firms.

Outlook on the AI Market

The global AI market, meanwhile, is huge: Gartner expects worldwide spending on artificial intelligence to exceed $2.5 trillion in the current year. The largest share of that is made up of investments in AI infrastructure – that is, in building and renting large data centers. Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla are among the few companies with a market capitalization of more than $1 trillion – a club that Anthropic, with its valuation, could soon join. For comparison: Siemens, currently the largest German company, has a market capitalization of $230 billion.

The fact that Anthropic took the first step is causing a stir in the industry. In recent months, Sam Altman had repeatedly said an OpenAI IPO could take place in the fall; however, no concrete documents had been filed with the SEC until then. With both rivals making their move, a hot phase in the AI race is now beginning – at the end of which two of the world's most influential tech firms could stand as publicly listed companies.

It remains unclear which company will ultimately get the larger slice of the AI pie. The roles are set: Anthropic leads with businesses, OpenAI with consumers. Both sides have the necessary capital, both the necessary technology, and both the ambition to shape the market. Until the actual IPO, investors, clients, and policymakers are likely to watch closely to see who comes out on top in research, products, and responsibility.