Armenian Parliamentary Election: Pashinyan's Party Leads According to Projections

Voter Turnout and Counting

About 2.5 million citizens were eligible to vote. Voter turnout was 59 percent according to observers, significantly higher than in the previous parliamentary election in 2021. At the time of reporting, 110 of around 2,000 polling stations had been counted.

The vote was marked by major tensions with Russia. Ahead of the election, Russia had exerted economic pressure on the country because of the government's pro-European activities, including imposing an import ban on certain Armenian goods. Moscow also threatened to terminate a favorable gas supply contract, which was seen in Yerevan as a direct response to Armenia's rapprochement with the European Union.

Tensions with Russia in the Run-Up

Pashinyan's party is seeking closer ties with the West and the EU in particular. Karapetyan and his party "Strong Armenia," by contrast, want to strengthen relations with the former protector power, Russia. In the vote — considered a directional election — in the South Caucasus republic of Armenia, voters thus also decided on the country's future geopolitical orientation.

The Kremlin was also accused of exerting influence in favor of Karapetyan's party. Independent observers reported that in the run-up to the election, pro-Russian media in Armenia had increasingly agitated on behalf of "Strong Armenia." Moscow itself did not officially comment on the accusations.

Accusations and Arrests on Election Day

According to the authorities, election day itself proceeded largely in an orderly fashion, but the opposition described it as turbulent. The pro-Russian opposition complained about the arrest of more than 100 of its supporters on election day. The authorities justified their actions against supporters of Strong Armenia around billionaire Samvel Karapetyan with the suspicion of attempted vote buying.

Karapetyan, who is considered one of the richest entrepreneurs in Armenia, had only publicly entered the political stage with his political movement shortly before the election. His financial backing for "Strong Armenia" had previously been regarded by critics as an attempt to influence the political course of the country in Russia's interests. He himself had spoken out in favor of closer ties to Moscow.

International election observers assessed the vote as fundamentally free, but pointed to isolated irregularities. The Central Election Commission announced that it would continue the count and present an updated result during the night. Observers did not expect the order of the forces to change.

Reactions and Outlook

For Pashinyan, the likely election result is a personal success. He had framed the vote as a directional decision for Armenia's future between Europe and Russia. With his party's clear lead, he can continue his previous foreign and security policy, which in recent years had led to a significant cooling of relations with Moscow.

In the Armenian capital Yerevan, supporters of the ruling party spontaneously took to the streets after the projections became known to celebrate the election victory. Representatives of the opposition, meanwhile, announced that they would have the election legally reviewed because of the arrests on election day. An official final result was expected in the coming days.

The Kremlin initially reacted cautiously to the projections from Yerevan. Observers interpreted Moscow's silence as a sign that the Russian leadership did not yet want to make a final assessment of the result. At the same time, concern grew in the region that tensions between Armenia and Russia could continue to increase after the election.

Geopolitical Significance of the Election

The reaction of the European Union was also awaited with tension. In Brussels, the vote in Yerevan was observed closely, as Armenia had signed several agreements with the EU in recent months that had been sharply criticized by Moscow. The EU stated that it respected the will of the Armenian people and would continue cooperation with Yerewan.

The geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus remains complicated in the assessment of experts in view of the election outcome. Armenia borders Turkey and Georgia and is closely involved in regional conflicts. The country's future orientation will shape not only relations with Russia, but also the security architecture of the entire region.

From civil society circles in Yerevan, it was said that the high voter turnout showed that Armenians wanted to exercise their democratic participation despite external pressure. According to political observers, the coming weeks are likely to be decisive in how the new government will concretely implement its foreign policy priorities.