Federal government cannot assess the climate impact of the new heating law

Open questions on EU law and energy prices

According to the federal government, it is also unclear whether the draft from Economics Minister Reiche is compatible with EU law. Likewise, the government has no reliable forecasts for the future price development of natural gas, biomethane, and so-called green hydrogen. At the same time, the law provides for a blending quota of biogas, although both the costs and the availability remain open.

From the Greens' perspective, the findings are serious. The parliamentary group's spokesperson on building policy in the Bundestag, Kassem Taher Saleh, stated that the federal government is planning a law "von dem sie selbst nicht sagen kann, welche Auswirkungen es haben wird und was es am Ende kostet". The government is admitting "sogar offen ein, dass sie die Klimawirkung des Gesetzes derzeit nicht abschätzen kann".

Greens' criticism: Violation of climate protection law

The opposition also criticizes the fact that the government cannot explain how it intends to offset the emission reductions in the building sector that are expected to be missed as a result of the law. This leaves open whether the climate targets in the building sector can still be achieved at all.

Taher Saleh pointed to the prohibition of regression enshrined in climate protection law. "Unser Grundgesetz verbietet beim Klimaschutz den Rückwärtsgang", he said. Reiche's draft is unconstitutional because it lowers previously achieved standards. The project therefore encroaches on a central achievement of climate protection law.

First reading in the Bundestag on Thursday

The Bundestag is to debate the law in first reading this Thursday. Until then, pressure on the coalition is likely to grow to answer the open questions on climate impact, costs, and EU law. An intensive debate over the course of heating policy is also emerging within the governing factions.

Observers see a fundamental problem in the matter: a law intended to reorganize heating replacement loses legitimacy if neither greenhouse gas savings nor the financial consequences for hundreds of thousands of households can be seriously quantified. The next parliamentary deliberations will show whether the government corrects its assessment or sticks to the draft.