Sipri: nuclear arsenals growing, Sipri sounds alarm on a new atomic arms race

Among these, approximately 4,012 warheads are already deployed on missiles and aircraft, while between 2,100 and 2,200 are kept at maximum operational readiness on ballistic missiles. The vast majority of the latter belong to the United States and Russia, with smaller shares held by Great Britain and France, according to the Sipri report.

The expansion of China's arsenal

More than 80% of the world's nuclear warheads are still concentrated in the hands of Moscow (5,420) and Washington (5,042). However, experts are focusing on China, which is expanding its arsenal at a more sustained pace than any other nuclear power. At the 2025 military parade, Beijing unveiled several new nuclear systems and, according to Sipri estimates, now possesses approximately 620 warheads.

"Eine stärkere Abhängigkeit nationaler Verteidigungs- und Sicherheitsstrategien von Atomwaffen könnte die nuklearen Risiken jedoch erheblich erhöhen", declared Sipri director Karim Haggag, stressing that the growing relevance of atomic weapons in national defense and security strategies could significantly increase nuclear risks. The report was released on the occasion of the publication of the new Sipri Yearbook and the news was broadcast by Deutschlandfunk on 8 June 2026.

North Korea, India and Pakistan: the regional risk

North Korea, according to experts' estimates, has already assembled approximately 60 warheads and possesses fissile material sufficient to build at least 30 more. India and Pakistan have continued their respective atomic programs despite the measures adopted after the brief military conflict of May 2025 to avoid escalation, in a regional context already marked by strong tensions.

In Ukraine, according to Sipri, many citizens express regret for having handed over their nuclear weapons to Russia in 1996, a decision that appears even more significant in light of the current geopolitical situation. The issue of arms control has returned forcefully to the forefront with the expiration of the New Start treaty between the United States and Russia, which occurred at the beginning of February 2026.

The end of the New Start treaty and the regulatory void

With the end of New Start, a cornerstone of mutual arms limitation between the two main nuclear powers has disappeared – an agreement that for over fifty years had constituted the principal bilateral control arrangement. Its disappearance, researchers warn, leaves a regulatory void that further aggravates the instability of the international system.

The United States' nuclear modernization program advanced in 2025, although it remained constrained by planning and funding problems. Further cost pressure is exerted by the Golden Dome missile defense system, promoted by US President Donald Trump, whose cost is estimated at approximately 1,200 billion dollars (roughly 1,030 billion euros) over the next twenty years.

The role of Europe and the experts' warnings

In parallel, Sipri experts point to an increasingly active role of Europe in the dynamics of nuclear rearmament. Matt Korda, a Sipri expert, observed that "Allein im vergangenen Jahr haben wir die Anfänge einer Ausweitung der Partnerschaft zur Lastenteilung im Nuklearbereich beobachtet, an der Frankreich, das Vereinigte Königreich und mehrere andere Länder, darunter Deutschland, beteiligt sind" (Only in the past year have we observed the beginnings of an expansion of the burden-sharing partnership in the nuclear field, in which France, the United Kingdom and several other countries, including Germany, are participating).

The expert also stressed that "Dieser Trend dürfte sich in den kommenden Jahren umkehren, da sich das Tempo der Abrüstung verlangsamt, während die Stationierung neuer Atomwaffen zunimmt", foreseeing a reversal of trend in the coming years, with a slowdown in disarmament and an increase in the deployment of new nuclear weapons. The European partnership is read as a sign of strengthening, not reduction, of the nuclear weight on the continent.

Hans Kristensen, a Sipri researcher, denounced a progressive abandonment of disarmament commitments by the nuclear powers, which would prefer to showcase their nuclear strength: "Es gibt immer mehr Anzeichen dafür, dass die Atomwaffenstaaten ihre Abrüstungsverpflichtungen vernachlässigen oder sogar ganz aufgeben und stattdessen ihre nukleare Stärke zur Schau stellen", he stated in a communiqué. Kristensen added that, by seeking nuclear solutions, states are creating new risks and fueling the dynamics of the arms race.

Korda also issued a particularly severe warning: "Wir stecken bereits mitten in einem neuen nuklearen Wettrüsten" (We are already in the middle of a new nuclear arms race). "Jeder Nuklearstaat baut sein Atomwaffenarsenal entweder quantitativ oder qualitativ aus – und manche tun beides" (Every nuclear state is expanding its arsenal either quantitatively or qualitatively – and some are doing both), he continued, warning that the measures adopted by one country trigger similar reactions in others. "Dieser Kreislauf ist extrem schwer zu durchbrechen" (This cycle is extremely difficult to break), Korda concluded.

The consequences for the non-proliferation regime

The report also highlights how influential voices, including some heads of state and government, are propagating nuclear weapons as a guarantee against attacks by hostile states. According to Sipri, this rhetoric contributes to normalizing the political use of the atomic threat, in a context in which China, even with more than 1,000 warheads, would still reach only about a quarter of the current Russian or American arsenals.

Sipri had already warned last year of a "gefährlichen nuklearen Wettrüsten" (dangerous nuclear arms race). Peace researchers criticize the fact that states are increasingly using nuclear weapons as instruments of national power politics, reversing decades of efforts aimed at reducing arsenals: "machten damit jahrzehntelange Bemühungen um eine Verringerung rückgängig", Sipri stated.

The picture that emerges from the Sipri report therefore outlines a worrying trend: the nuclear arms race, far from slowing down, seems to have gained new momentum, with the concrete risk of further erosion of the control and stability mechanisms that have characterized the second half of the 20th century. The combination of modernization, quantitative expansion and growing political weight of the nuclear factor foreshadows difficult years for the non-proliferation regime.

The news, disseminated by the dpa news agency, confirms how the nuclear rearmament race is now a consolidated reality affecting all the major powers, with direct repercussions on European and global security. Sipri will continue to monitor the evolution of arsenals in its upcoming reports, in a context in which transparency and dialogue among the nuclear powers appear increasingly difficult.