April 7, 2026
There is a 62% chance of an El Niño event developing between June and August this year, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), with some models predicting an unusually strong "Super El Niño" that could disrupt weather patterns worldwide.
Likelihood and Timing of El Niño
NOAA's forecast indicates a high probability of El Niño conditions emerging by mid-2026, with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) similarly projecting its development during the summer or autumn. The phenomenon, characterized by abnormal warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, alters global air circulation and often leads to extreme weather events.
Atmospheric researcher Paul Roundy, cited in a Washington Post report, warned of the potential for an unprecedented event, stating there is a "reales Potenzial für das stärkste El Niño-Ereignis seit 140 Jahren" ("real potential for the strongest El Niño event in 140 years"). While not all models agree on the intensity, the convergence of multiple forecasts raises concerns among climate scientists.
Unusual Cyclonic Activity in the Pacific
Current weather patterns in the Pacific are already showing anomalies that could accelerate El Niño’s formation. Tropical Cyclone Maila, which formed unusually close to the equator, is among several atypical storm systems that may contribute to the warming of Pacific waters—a key precursor to El Niño.