BEIJING, April 16, 2026
China's economy expanded by 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing analyst expectations despite ongoing global conflicts and a sluggish end to 2025, according to preliminary data released by the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing.
Stronger-Than-Expected Growth
The world's second-largest economy rebounded from a weak fourth quarter in 2025, when GDP growth slowed to just 4.5 percent year-on-year. The latest figures exceeded forecasts, as analysts had projected growth of up to 4.8 percent for the first quarter of 2026. The improvement comes despite persistent geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in global trade, which has weighed on China's export sector.
In March, the Communist Party set a modest growth target of 4.5 to 5.0 percent for the year—the lowest such goal in decades. The first-quarter performance aligns with the upper end of that range, suggesting cautious optimism among policymakers. However, challenges remain, particularly in the export sector, where growth slowed sharply to just 2.5 percent in March, according to customs data.
Economic Challenges and Policy Adjustments
The stronger-than-expected growth in early 2026 follows a period of economic turbulence in late 2025, when China grappled with weaker domestic demand and external pressures. The fourth-quarter slowdown had raised concerns about the sustainability of China's recovery, particularly as global conflicts disrupted supply chains and trade flows.