Chicago, April 21, 2026 United Airlines has slashed its annual profit forecast, citing soaring kerosene prices driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Financial Impact of Rising Fuel Costs
The airline now expects earnings per share (EPS) to range between $7 and $11 for the year, a significant drop from its previous projection of $12 to $14, according to corroborated financial reports. This adjustment reflects the mounting pressure of fuel expenses, which have surged due to disruptions in global oil supplies linked to the Iran war.
In the last quarter alone, United spent $3 billion on fuel, marking a 12.6% increase compared to the same period last year. Despite this, the company reported an 80% jump in quarterly profit, reaching $699 million, alongside a 10.6% rise in revenue to $14.6 billion. The contrasting figures highlight the dual challenge of strong demand for air travel and escalating operational costs.
Geopolitical Factors and Market Volatility
The conflict in Iran has disrupted key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil shipments. This has led to heightened volatility in fuel prices, with kerosene costs hitting record levels. United Airlines, like other carriers, is grappling with the financial strain of these market shifts.

