France Awaits Verdict on Marine Le Pen's Presidential Candidacy

First-Instance Verdict and Appeal

A previous decision by the Cour de Cassation, France's highest court, suggests, according to the available report, that the judiciary should not influence the course and outcome of elections. This guideline is being invoked as an argument for a shortened ban, since a five-year ineligibility would effectively exclude Le Pen from the 2027 election. Legal experts, however, consider the chances of an acquittal on appeal to be slim.

In parallel with the appeal proceedings, investigations are underway against the "Patriots for Europe" (PfE) faction in the European Parliament on suspicion of the improper use of funds. This faction is led by Jordan Bardella, the party chairman of the RN and designated successor candidate of Le Pen. Bardella states that he is not involved in the embezzlement case.

Investigations Against Patriots for Europe

Bardella, the 30-year-old president of the Rassemblement National, is meanwhile making his own headlines. In recent weeks, political differences have emerged between him and Le Pen, particularly on economic policy. Der Tagesspiegel describes him as her "protégé and substitute candidate."

Bardella expressed the hope that Le Pen would be "elected president in a few months," and assured her of his full support and friendship. At the same time, he is preparing to run himself as the RN's lead candidate if the appeal court confirms Le Pen's ineligibility.

Appearance in Liévin and Political Line

At a campaign appearance in Liévin in northern France, Le Pen addressed her supporters and attacked the ongoing proceedings. A court should not have the possibility of "thwarting the democratic functioning of our country," she said there. At the same time, she assured that she would support her successor Bardella "with great energy, conviction and confidence" as a presidential candidate.

Le Pen added: "Whatever happens on July 7, I will continue my fight. If I cannot be a candidate, then I will simply be a supporter of the party." She thereby reaffirmed her claim to remain the political leader of the French right, regardless of the outcome of the proceedings.

Le Pen is the daughter of RN founder Jean-Marie Le Pen. At the age of eight, she survived, by her own account, a bomb attack on the family's Paris home at the time. She described this event as her "political awakening."

Personal Background and Outlook

The appeal panel that will deliver the verdict consists of three judges. The proceedings are considered one of the most politically charged trials in recent French history. Should the court confirm the prison sentence, ineligibility generally takes effect under French law. If the ban is reduced to two years, however, Le Pen could still run in 2027.

The article, written by Stefan Brändle from Paris and Andrea Nüsse, frames the case as a decisive moment for the political future of the right-wing populist. Polls see Le Pen as a strong prospect for a presidential candidacy; a victory in the first round in 2027 is repeatedly sketched in surveys as a possible outcome.

The verdict on Tuesday is therefore awaited with great anticipation – not only within the RN, but across the entire French political public. It will determine whether France's leading opposition figure can continue her fight for the country's highest office, or whether Bardella will enter the campaign in her place.