Macron announces Ukraine protection force ready for deployment – first maneuvers in Poland in autumn

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the planned maneuver in Paris. "The Polish armed forces are participants and hosts," the Polish news agency PAP reported. Tusk named troops from France and the United Kingdom as international participants in the exercise.

Poland as host of the first exercise

The maneuvers should prepare the coalition for "concrete security guarantees for Ukraine, but also for the region," Tusk said, according to the PAP news agency. They are intended to serve deterrence and to take place in Ukraine's neighboring countries.

Poland's Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz declared in Warsaw that his country is ready for a permanent stationing of troops from France and the United Kingdom. "If we take more responsibility for NATO's eastern border, then those who live far from it come to Poland," he said.

The Polish-Ukrainian border is more than 500 kilometers long and is simultaneously the external border of the European Union and NATO. The maneuvers in Poland are taking place in a country immediately neighboring Ukraine and underscore the strategic importance of the country for the security architecture in the region.

The so-called Coalition of the Willing plans a multinational, European-led force supported by the United States. It is to help ensure Ukraine's security after an end to Russia's war of aggression. At the same time, in the view of its proponents, the force could be deployed in the event of a ceasefire or a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow."

Goal: Security guarantees for Ukraine

At the meeting in Paris, Germany, France, and other European states had decided, among other things, on the construction of a joint missile defense with Ukraine. Macron had initially spoken on Monday about joint exercises without specifying the location.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz also sent a direct message to Russia in Paris: "Unsere Botschaft an Russland lautet daher: Es wird Zeit an den Verhandlungstisch zu kommen. Es wird Zeit, sich auf einen Waffenstillstand zu verständigen. Es wird Zeit, das unnötige Blutvergießen in der Ukraine zu beenden."

Russia and the stalled peace process

The efforts to end the war have been stalled for months, however. Russia is continuing its war of aggression against Ukraine without interruption. Tusk said in Paris that he expected Russia under President Vladimir Putin to prolong the conflict at least until winter."

"Angesichts der starren Haltung Russlands und Putins scheint es zu diesem Zeitpunkt unwahrscheinlich, dass in naher Zukunft ein Waffenstillstand oder ein Friedensabkommen erreicht wird", Tusk declared, according to PAP. In his view, a swift peace in Ukraine is not to be expected.

European leadership with US support

The Coalition of the Willing of Western supporting states had met the previous day in Paris and decided on further steps to support Ukraine, including the delivery of additional weapons systems. Macron subsequently spoke to the public again, without disclosing the exact modalities of the exercises.

The German government supports the project, as do London and Paris. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul traveled to Norway in the context of ongoing hybrid threats from Russia to discuss, among other things, security in Northern Europe and challenges in the Arctic.

The planned force is explicitly conceived as a European-led formation with US support. Military leadership thus remains in Europe, while Washington is to provide logistical and intelligence assistance.

Observers assess the maneuvers as a signal to Moscow that the Western allies are translating their announcement from January into operational reality. They are regarded as an important test of the coalition's ability to quickly assemble deployable units and lead them jointly.

Open questions and timeline

As Cai Rienäcker reported from the ARD studio in Paris, many detailed questions remain open. It is unclear, among other things, which armed forces will exactly take part in the exercises and to what extent they will deploy personnel and materiel to Poland.

With autumn in view, only a narrow window of time remains for preparation. If the maneuver takes place as shown, it would be the first operational signal of the new protection force in immediate geographical proximity to Ukraine and thus also a yardstick for the resolve of the Western states.

The coming weeks will show whether the Coalition of the Willing can translate its own announcements into concrete troop deployments and joint exercises. Russia has so far rejected any Western military presence in the region as a provocation.

Should Russia react to the maneuvers with escalation, the already stalled conflict threatens to escalate further. Should Moscow, on the other hand, return to the negotiating table once again, the exercises could serve as leverage in future talks.