Meloni suffers setback on electoral reform: Coalition rebels vote against the boss

The failed amendment concerned the introduction of so-called preferential votes, which would have allowed voters in future to push individual candidates to the top of their party's list. Rather than receiving fixed party lists for parliament, voters would have been able to choose between different candidates. The reform also provided for the party receiving the most votes to be awarded a majority bonus in the distribution of seats, and for the head of government to be directly elected in future.

For Meloni was trying to push through something that is deeply unpopular among Italy's parliamentarians of every stripe: the «preferenze», or preferential votes. But parliamentarians seeking re-election fear this choice being placed in voters' hands and prefer unchangeable lists on which, as incumbents, they usually sit at the top.

What the failed reform is about

Meloni reacted with sharp words on Facebook: "Wir haben versucht, eine Reform durchzusetzen, doch der Sumpf hat wieder gewonnen." Italian media widely describe the episode as «un incidente», an accident. At the same time, Forza Italia's parliamentary floor leader Enrico Costa told the newspaper Corriere della Sera that the setback was unlikely to trigger a broader political crisis. "Es ist entscheidend, dieses Gesetz, das Stabilität garantiert, voranzutreiben," Costa said.

The left-wing opposition immediately demanded her resignation and fresh elections. Opposition supporters celebrated the result with shouts of – "Neuwahlen, Neuwahlen!" – and embraced each other after the vote. The leader of the centre-left Partito Democratico (PD), Elly Schlein, declared: "Meloni è stata sfiduciata dalla sua stessa coalizione: deve dimettersi da premier." Former prime minister and leader of the Five Star Movement Giuseppe Conte likewise demanded Meloni's resignation and immediate fresh elections.

Things have not been going smoothly for the otherwise success-accustomed Giorgia Meloni since the spring. In March she lost the referendum on her judicial reform. Voters rejected it by a clear majority. Critics had branded the judicial reform authoritarian. Around the same time, her ugly, very public row with US President Trump began.

Opposition demands resignation

Despite the double blow, Meloni's minister for parliamentary relations, Luca Ciriani, struck a combative tone: "Wir haben nicht die Absicht, unsere Regierungstätigkeit zu unterbrechen; wir sind stolz auf die politische Stabilität, die wir dem Land gegeben haben." The three parties of the Italian governing coalition reaffirmed on the day of reporting that they intend to press ahead with the legislative project. It is assumed that the right-wing prime minister intends to pursue her plan despite the defeat. Whether the government will make a second attempt at electoral reform remained open at the time of reporting.

Meloni can draw on stable polling figures. The prime minister and her party have led all other forces in the polls for a long time. Fratelli d'Italia currently stands at around 30 per cent of the vote. Meloni argues that Italy needs stable conditions.

Growth on the right flank: Vannacci

However, a new competitor is taking shape on her right flank. To her right, former general Roberto Vannacci is steadily gaining support in every poll. Vannacci uses sharp rhetoric against the EU and against foreigners, appealing to Italy's far-right electorate, and is credited in the polls with between 5 and 10 per cent. He has entered the governing coalition as a potential rival and could complicate Meloni's re-election.

The parties to the left of centre have so far agreed neither on a joint programme nor on a counter-candidate. It is more likely that Meloni will simply continue. If she holds on until after the summer break – which is considered likely – she will in early September become Italy's longest continuously serving head of government. The current record is held by Silvio Berlusconi; Meloni needs only another 50 days to surpass it. At 1,363 days in office, her government is already the second longest in Italy's post-war history.

Outlook: record and new election

The decision on early elections, however, does not lie with Meloni but with President Sergio Mattarella, who has not yet set the exact date of the next parliamentary elections. Italy is expected to go to the polls again next year. Until the ordinary election next autumn, the president could also install a transitional government. One thing is clear: this government has not yet delivered any major reform.

The Italian press frequently refers to the dissenting coalition MPs as «sniper» rebels. Around three dozen rebels from her own ranks refused Meloni their support – between 30 and 40 MPs from Lega and Forza Italia broke their previously given word and voted secretly with the opposition.

The parliamentary defeat is part of a series of setbacks for the coalition of Fratelli d'Italia, Lega and Forza Italia, in office since autumn 2022. Large numbers of right-wing voters also voted No in March's referendum on the judicial reform. The outcome of the secret ballot is seen as a warning signal for Meloni's leadership at a moment when she is simultaneously under pressure at home and tested abroad by the dispute with Washington.