WASHINGTON, April 29, 2026 Powell to stay as Fed governor briefly after chair term ends
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is likely to remain on the Fed Board of Governors for a short time after his term as head of the central bank concludes, according to betting markets and sources familiar with the matter.
Resignation Odds and DOJ Probe
Bettors on prediction platform Kalshi estimate an 81% chance Powell will resign as a Fed governor by the end of 2026, with high confidence in the projection. The odds surged to nearly 54.5% for a June resignation after the Department of Justice dropped its criminal inquiry into Powell last Friday. Previously, Powell had stated he would not step down as a governor until the DOJ probe was resolved.
Polymarket data shows an 87% probability Powell will resign between May 15 and May 22, signaling strong market expectations of his imminent departure. The timing aligns with his scheduled press conference after the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, where he may address his plans.
Trump-Warsh Dynamics and Fed Independence
Tensions between Powell and former President Donald Trump have escalated since Trump’s second term began in 2025. The White House has expressed frustration over the Fed’s reluctance to cut interest rates as aggressively as the Trump administration desired. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, a nominee to the Fed Board, advanced through the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday morning.