Revenue decline in the first half-year: Austria's retail sector looks anxiously toward 2026

Economic environment and iföw forecast

Rainer Trefelik, retail spokesperson of the Economic Chamber, emphasized the structural burdens on the sector. In addition to the economic slump, rising labor costs, energy costs and bureaucratic requirements are weighing on retail. The EU Packaging Regulation is also creating additional adjustment pressure, Trefelik reported. Many businesses would have to invest to meet new requirements without this generating any immediate additional demand.

Sentiment in the sector is correspondingly subdued. Surveys conducted by the WKO among its members show that willingness to invest is declining and many companies are planning their workforce rather cautiously. At the same time, bricks-and-mortar retail is complaining about a continuing loss of purchasing power among private households, which is reflected in falling footfall in city centers.

Regional view: WKO Steiermark

Regional Economic Chamber organizations such as the WKO Steiermark are also registering the deterioration. State spokespersons pointed out that, particularly in rural areas, the loss of footfall drivers – for example through the closure of smaller branches – places an additional burden on remaining businesses. The structural change in retail is being accelerated by the economic weakness.

Voithofer does, however, see a few bright spots. Export markets in some neighboring countries have stabilized, and the tourism industry – an important source of demand for retail – continues to be robust. These effects cannot fully compensate for the downward pressure, the economist cautioned.

Structural burdens and political demands

For the second half of the year, iföw expects at best a stagnation in real revenues. A noticeable recovery would only be possible once inflation declines further and the purchasing power of private households rises again. Until then, retail will continue to rely on cautious cost planning and targeted investments.

The Economic Chamber announced that it would draw the political level's attention to the difficult situation. Trefelik once again called for relief from bureaucracy and taxes so as not to further undermine the competitiveness of domestic businesses. Concrete measures would need to be discussed with the responsible ministries, the WKO stated.

Market observers such as the Styrian Gerhard Wohlmuth, managing director of the eponymous food manufacturer, view the situation in a differentiated way. While food retail is performing comparatively stably, the clothing, footwear and durable consumer goods segments are particularly affected. This is consistent with the Economic Chamber's surveys, which record the most pronounced declines in these segments.

Overall, the data paint the picture of a sector in an adjustment process. The real revenue decline is not solely economic in nature but also structural – driven by changed consumer behavior, digitalization and tightened regulation. The sector therefore faces a dual challenge: securing margins in the short term and realigning the business model in the long term.

The coming weeks will show whether summer business can cushion the downward trend somewhat. The first robust data for the third quarter is not expected before October at the earliest. Until then, Voithofer's words remain directional: hope yes, upturn not for the time being.