Ten Years After the Coup Attempt: How Erdoğan Disempowered the Turkish Army

The Night That Changed Everything

Erdoğan had systematically made the Turkish armed forces "putschfest," Neumann summarizes the president's strategy. This included mass arrests, dismissals, and transfers within the army, as well as the establishment of parallel security structures. Classic military coups are now significantly less likely than they were ten years ago.

The disempowerment of the army ran parallel to comprehensive control of the judiciary, the media, and the administration. Critics speak of an authoritarian consolidation that has cemented Erdoğan's position as president. Observers note that Turkey has noticeably distanced itself from democratic standards over the course of this decade.

New Risks Within the Power Apparatus

Neumann also warns of a new risk landscape. The security risk today lies less with the military and much more with Erdoğan's own power apparatus. This shifts the threat to the country's political stability away from an institutional force and toward a personalized system.

Internationally, this development has consequences for relations with the European Union. The EU has been observing the domestic political situation in Turkey with concern for years, particularly because of restrictions on press freedom and the rule of law. Ankara, in turn, points to its own security interests and a geopolitical key role.

Consequences for Turkey and the EU

Turkey also stands out in comparison with other authoritarian-ruled states. While Russia and China pursue their own models of securing power, Erdoğan has chosen a path that ties directly to the experience of 2016. The night of the coup is regarded in the government's official narrative as the founding moment of the new republic.

For Turkish society, July 15 remains a deeply divisive date. For Erdoğan's supporters, it stands for the triumph of democracy over a criminal clique. For critics, it marks the beginning of a wave of "Massensäuberungen" that affected tens of thousands of people in the judiciary, administration, and military.

Political scientist Cengiz Günay, who has been analyzing developments in Turkey for years, sees long-term consequences for the country's political culture. The memory of the coup attempt is deliberately cultivated by the government in order to delegitimize criticism of its own power. The trauma of 2016 thus remains a political instrument.

A Divided Commemoration

Overall, a look at ten years of Turkey after the coup attempt reveals a country that has undergone profound political, institutional, and social change. The question of whether stability has been gained or democracy lost depends to a large extent on the observer's perspective.

For the coming years, observers expect Erdoğan to further consolidate control over the security apparatus. A return to a stronger role for the military in politics is considered unlikely. Turkey thus remains a country in which the balance of power has been permanently shifted in favor of the president.