KÖLN, April 17, 2026
Gabriel Felbermayr, a newly appointed member of the German Council of Economic Experts, predicts significant increases in flight ticket prices as the Iran war disrupts global fuel supplies.
The economist cited the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz as a primary cause for impending shortages of kerosene and diesel, which will drive up costs for airlines and passengers alike. Felbermayr also anticipates a drop in demand for air travel as prices climb, potentially leading to cancellations of some flight routes.
Fuel Shortages and Rising Costs
The ongoing conflict in Iran has severely impacted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Felbermayr emphasized that the resulting kerosene shortage will directly affect aviation fuel availability, forcing airlines to pass higher costs to consumers. "The demand for flight services will decrease as ticket prices rise," he stated, underscoring the economic ripple effects of the crisis.
With Europe heavily reliant on imported energy, the disruption threatens to exacerbate existing inflationary pressures. Felbermayr warned that airlines may be forced to scale back operations if passenger numbers decline sharply, leading to potential route cancellations.
Policy Recommendations
Instead of cutting fuel taxes, Felbermayr urged governments to allocate funds toward reducing electricity costs for households and businesses. "Subsidizing energy bills would provide more targeted relief than broad tax cuts," he argued, highlighting the need for fiscal measures that address rising living expenses without exacerbating budget deficits.