Xavier Becerra Leads California Gubernatorial Primary – Runoff in November Unclear

It remained unclear who Becerra would face in November. According to the available projections, Republican Steve Hilton and Becerra were nearly tied, each with over 26 percent of the vote. This meant that Hilton, according to the projections, also had a strong chance of securing one of the two spots in the runoff.

Democrat Tom Steyer followed in third place with 21 percent. The close race between Becerra and Hilton reflected concerns previously voiced within the Democratic Party: a fragmentation of votes among several Democratic candidates could have led to two Republicans advancing to the runoff.

Background: California's Top-Two Rule

California has long operated under a rule where the two candidates with the most votes in a primary, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election. This Top-Two rule was intended to ensure that, in a predominantly Democratic state, a Democrat would ultimately win the race. However, this year's field of numerous candidates had called that expectation into question.

Becerra is running as a former cabinet secretary. Incumbent Gavin Newsom cannot run for a third term due to term limits; he is being considered as a potential Democratic contender for the 2028 presidential election. The question of his successor is therefore gaining significance beyond the borders of California.

Outlook for the November Runoff

The field of Democratic candidates was broad, which experts suggested increased the risk of vote fragmentation. Becerra's apparent advancement to the runoff, based on current projections, was seen in initial reactions as an important signal for the Democratic Party, as a scenario of two Republicans facing off in the runoff is now off the table.

Should Hilton ultimately finish second in the primary, the November election would feature a direct confrontation between Becerra and the Republican. If, however, another candidate – such as Steyer – were to overtake Hilton, the contest would be between two Democrats.

Vote counting in California is often a lengthy process due to the large number of mail-in ballots. Therefore, as emphasized by election observers, shifts in the percentage standings could still occur in the coming days, altering the picture.

Observers pointed out that California is considered a Democratic stronghold. In this context, it is noteworthy that a Republican like Hilton came so close to a Democrat according to the preliminary numbers. The final composition of the runoff is therefore eagerly awaited.

The runoff election for the governorship of California is scheduled for November. Until then, the remaining candidates are expected to intensify their campaigns, as the question of Newsom's succession is considered politically significant for the entire West Coast state.