After 1:2 Loss to Ecuador: DFB-Elef Meets Paraguay, Scotland or Sweden in Round of 16

Which opponent actually awaits on Monday was still open at the time of the report. "Der Gegner im Sechzehntelfinale am Montag steht noch nicht fest," the report stated. The final assignment results from the still ongoing group matches and the complex distribution logic of the FIFA format for the eight best third-placed teams. "Aktuell kommen noch vier Mannschaften dafür infrage. Neben Südkorea sind dies Schottland, Paraguay und Schweden," the piece explained.

Possible Opponents and Their Probability

In the meantime, the field has narrowed to three candidates: South Korea has been eliminated as a possible German opponent, as the team can still be overtaken in the ranking of the best third-placed teams during the current matchday. "ebenso Südkorea," the broadcaster stated in reference to this possibility. This leaves Scotland, Paraguay and Sweden as realistic options. "Derzeit hat nur Schweden einen Platz unter den acht besten Gruppendritten sicher," it continued.

Statistically, Paraguay leads the field of possible German opponents. In an evaluation of the remaining 51 scenarios – from an original 495 possible constellations – 45 see Paraguay as the next opponent for Julian Nagelsmann's team. This makes the South American side by far the most likely option for the first knockout match.

Historic Duel with Paraguay

A reunion with Paraguay could see the German team drawing on historic experience: the most recent World Cup duel between Germany and Paraguay took place at the 2002 World Cup in Japan and South Korea. Back then, the German team prevailed and went on to reach the final.

The Round of 32 kicks off already on Monday (22:30 CEST) in Foxborough near Boston. This leaves Julian Nagelsmann's team with little time to prepare for the first knockout opponent of the tournament. Against Scotland or Sweden, the DFB-Elef would face two European sides, and against Paraguay, a representative from South America.

Venue and Schedule

The final decision on the opponent will be made with the last group matches. Only then will it be clear which of the three teams will play the Round of 32 against Germany. Until then, the DFB team is preparing for all three scenarios and cannot yet definitively determine its tactical approach.

The report was broadcast on 26.06.2026 on Deutschlandfunk. The piece originates from the dpa news channel (dpa:260626-930-286212/1).