Austria Faces European Champion Spain in World Cup Round of 16

Drama in Kansas City as a Turning Point

The experience has left its mark – and has forged the team together. "Dieses Spiel hat uns brutal zusammengeschweißt," reported Phillipp Mwene. "Es hat uns gezeigt, dass alles möglich ist, egal wie aussichtslos die Situation erscheint," the Mainz 05 full-back explained: "Und es hat uns die Gewissheit gegeben: Auch wenn Spanien ein scheinbar übermächtiger Gegner ist, haben wir trotzdem die Chance, weiterzukommen."

Head coach Rangnick, who assesses the situation soberly, does see parallels with Euro 2024, when Austria advanced to the knockout stage as group winner ahead of France, the Netherlands, and Poland. "In dem Spiel können wir tatsächlich nur gewinnen," the 68-year-old said of the situation heading into the round of 16. "Die Chance werden wir suchen. In einem Spiel ist alles möglich, das hat man auch zuletzt schon beim Turnier gesehen."

Rangnick's Sober Analysis

The German spoke of the "next final" for his team, which has felt a noticeable mental lift since the Algeria drama. "Ich verspüre mehr Vorfreude als Nervosität oder Aufregung," said Rangnick. "Wir haben noch nicht unser Maximum erreicht." ÖFB sporting director Peter Schöttel, who classified the trip as a shorter journey than the Spanish delegation, also assessed the Iberians as "nicht so zweikampfstark" as Argentina – a small glimmer of hope.

Yet for all the joy over the second chance, there are reasons why Austria's group-stage finish was so dramatic. Six goals conceded in the three group matches against Jordan (3:1), defending champion Argentina (0:2), and Algeria are more than the Rangnick side allowed in eight qualifying matches recently (four). ORF expert Roman Mählich misses "die Gier, Bälle zu erobern" that defines Rangnick's play. Only the "in der Qualifikation" part has to be questioned in stretches, because the once so effective Rangnick pressing was often only a breeze even on the way to qualifying group victory.

Weaknesses in the Pressing

After scoring themselves, the Alpine side, traded as a dark horse, too often dropped a gear – and almost always promptly paid the price. "Vielleicht haben wir die Umstellung ein wenig unterschätzt," said Rangnick. Too often, the front line of the 4-2-4 formation played when out of possession charges forward without the two following lines pushing up. The counter-pressing, once the team's trademark, has so far failed to materialize.

The fact that Spain is not arriving in top form is considered one of the few realistic chances for the Austrians. "Es gab in diesem Spiel nicht so viele klare Torchancen, die sich Spanien herausgespielt hat," Rangnick explained. The concerns have various reasons: Several players in Spain's World Cup squad have only recently returned from injuries and are accordingly not yet at 100 percent. It is not the case that Spain created chances minute by minute in the group stage against Cape Verde (0:0), Saudi Arabia (4:0), and Uruguay (1:0).

Spain's 34 Unbeaten Matches

Spain's defensive record is nevertheless impressive. The Spaniards, setting aside a penalty shootout in last year's Nations League final against Portugal, have not lost in 34 consecutive competitive matches. In addition, Unai Simon has not conceded a goal in 429 World Cup minutes. The last one the European champion goalkeeper conceded was in 2022 in the group match against Japan (1:2). A possible blueprint was provided by Cape Verde, who sensationally snatched a point from the Furia Roja with a 0:0 in their World Cup opener.

Given the absences, the hopes of the "Furia Roja" rest all the more on Lamine Yamal. The 18-year-old likes to dribble at pace from the right toward goal with his left foot. "Er ist einer der kommenden Topstars, eigentlich ist er jetzt schon einer," said Rangnick about the teenager from FC Barcelona. "Du wirst ihn nicht ganz aus dem Spiel nehmen können. Ganz alleine gegen ihn wird es brutal schwer, da hat er einfach Lösungen."

Yamal as the Key Figure

In Cape Verde's sensational 0:0 against Spain, things went reasonably well until the 70th minute, when Lamine Yamal, still recovering at the time, was brought on. Mwene, who is missing the match against Spain due to a muscle injury, said: "Oberste Priorität wird sein, ihn nicht auf seinen starken linken Fuß zu lassen, sondern zu versuchen, ihn außen zu halten." Somehow, though, one has the feeling that not Mwene but Konrad Laimer is best suited to drive the teenager to despair.

ORF experts Roman Mählich and Andi Herzog, as well as Andreas Ivanschitz, who previously played in Spain at Levante, see Austria's chances primarily in defense. "Es heißt 30, 40 Meter vor dem Tor, im Mittelfeld eng und kompakt sein und da den Ballführenden zu attackieren," Herzog emphasized. "Wenn wir zu hoch anpressen, werden die Spanier die Räume nützen und uns gnadenlos ausspielen." Ivanschitz recommends "Entlastungsangriffe" and sees striker Sasa Kalajdzic, the much-celebrated equalizer scorer in the 3:3 against Algeria, as a possible number 10.

Tactical Recommendations from the Experts

Herzog demands: "Wir müssen versuchen, den Spaniern die Freude zu nehmen. Die Arbeit gegen den Ball muss wieder besser werden im Vergleich zu den bisherigen Spielen." Peter Stöger added: "Die Spanier sind aktuell nicht in der Form. Die Spanier spielen noch nicht das, was sie können." Herzog also warns, however: "Es wäre schlecht, wenn wir nur defensiv denken, uns zurückziehen und uns nichts trauen."

Former national team player Jasmin Eder, who pulled off a surprise with Austria against Spain at Euro 2017 – a tournament debut that sensationally took them to the semifinal – said: "Der Druck liegt ganz klar bei Spanien, wir können nach dem Aufstieg wieder frech spielen." Eder recalled the concept from that time: "Wir hatten damals einen ganz klaren Plan, Angriffspressing und tief verteidigen. Dann haben wir es ihnen schwer gemacht, die Null gehalten, und im Elfmeterschießen hatten wir keinen Druck."

The underdog faced the overwhelming favorite back then with a 4-5-1 and massively congested the midfield. In the end, the boys forced the later European champion Italy into extra time (1:2). Mählich sees it similarly: "Die WM ist erfolgreich, und jetzt haben wir die Möglichkeit, sie außergewöhnlich zu machen." But he added with a note of caution: "Österreich hat das 'grausliche' Spiel verloren, es muss wieder gallig, kompakt sein, mehr vom Rangnick-Spiel kommen."

Austria's Mentality Before Kickoff

Anyone who asks around in Viennese cafés about the mood before the World Cup round of 16 against Spain on Thursday is likely to quickly get an answer like: "Najo, wenigstens san ma drei Tog länger dabei ois die Deitschn." It just doesn't work without a bit of Viennese wit. Florian Grillitsch spoke of some "sehr schwierig" minutes that had passed in between. "Uns ist bewusst geworden, dass es schnell vorbei sein kann," the midfielder assessed on Tuesday with a bit of distance: "Ich glaube, dass das mental sehr gut für uns war."