DAX slides: Middle East crisis and AI profit-taking weigh on stock markets

The trigger for the wave of selling was an escalation in the Middle East. After attacks on several tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the US military had struck targets in Iran. Iran criticized the move as a "schwerwiegenden Verstoß" against the framework agreement. In response to the tensions, sanctions on Iranian oil were reimposed; the oil price rose by more than two percent, fueling concerns about renewed supply chain disruptions.

Trigger: Attacks on tankers and US military strikes

Deutsche Bank's bank strategists pointed to the renewed flare-up of the Iran conflict. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had lost more than 15 percent since its mid-June peak and had virtually marked its lowest level in a month. The index dropped 4.7 percent on Tuesday. Weak guidance from the United States and quarterly results from Samsung Electronics, which fell short of investors' high expectations, also weighed.

Andreas Lipkow, analyst at CMC Markets, described sentiment with a view to the recently strong-performing tech and AI stocks: "Die Favoriten der vergangenen Monate würden wackeln, das sorge für steigende Nervosität unter den Anlegern," he said. He also warned: "Die Angst vor einem abrupten Ende der Rally von allem, was mit KI zu tun hat und bislang nur eine Richtung an der Börse kannte, ist auf dem Parkett deutlich zu spüren."

AI rally under pressure

Jochen Stanzl, market analyst at Consorsbank, also viewed the new uncertainty critically. The mutual attacks in the Middle East and the renewed embargo policy toward Iranian oil exports had brought risks back onto the agenda, "als die Märkte die geopolitischen Risiken samt der dadurch begleiteten Inflationssorgen abhaken wollten". In addition, the summer lull was increasingly being felt on the stock market, as a thin economic calendar provided few convincing buying arguments. The development was "eine Entwicklung in die falsche Richtung," according to Stanzl.

Asia in the red – Hong Kong as an exception

In Asia, leading bourses mostly reacted with declines. Japan's Nikkei 225 closed 2.1 percent lower at 66,819 points. South Korea's Kospi lost more than five percent, falling to its lowest level since mid-May; it has shed nearly 20 percent since its annual highs. The CSI 300, comprising the most important stocks on the Chinese mainland bourses, dropped 0.8 percent. Australian stocks presented themselves "erneut unauffällig und vergleichsweise stabil," with the S&P/ASX 200 falling only 0.21 percent to 8,785.10 points.

Hong Kong was an exception: the Hang Seng Index held out against the trend with a gain of 2.9 percent, benefiting from gains in internet stocks as well as the relatively cheap valuation of the technology sector by international comparison. Market participants pointed to catch-up potential that had moved funds to rotate into Chinese stocks. Semiconductor stocks were also in demand in Hong Kong; Alibaba shares staged a price jump. One of the reasons is a report from Reuters stating that the Chinese start-up DeepSeek is developing its own AI chip that could reduce dependence on Nvidia.

In the United States, the picture was mixed: the Dow Jones closed 0.3 percent lower at 52,925 points, after having marked a record high during the trading session. The broad-based S&P 500 lost 0.5 percent to 7,504 points, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq dropped 1.2 percent to 25,818 points. The US semiconductor index SOX continued its slide from the previous evening and just held the 50-day line at the close.

Commerzbank in Unicredit's sights

In addition to the geopolitical shocks, the Commerzbank takeover by Unicredit also moved markets on the reporting day. Unicredit intended to announce the final result of its takeover offer on the day of publication. As of June 19, Unicredit had secured almost 40 percent of Commerzbank shares directly as well as via call options and other financial instruments. If the 50-percent threshold were exceeded, Unicredit could exert decisive influence on Commerzbank's management. Commerzbank's leadership rejects a takeover.

Overall, the developments left their mark on the technology-heavy markets and those dependent on oil-price developments. The profit-taking in AI stocks in Germany mirrored the weakness on Asian stock markets, while energy and commodity stocks benefited from rising oil prices.

Analysts stressed that, while the recent events did not represent a break in the peace process, they were nevertheless a development in the wrong direction. Whether the sell-off heralds a correction or the beginning of a broader trend is likely to depend on how the geopolitical situation escalates further and whether the upcoming corporate reports can provide market participants with new impulses.