DAX Between 25,000 Points and New Reshuffles in the Index

Lead-Ins from Asia and Hope for Wall Street

Martin Utschneider, chart expert at Robomarkets, spoke in this context of a "stress test" from geopolitics, monetary policy, and AI fantasy. While the geopolitical file remains open and central banks continue to offer investors no clear direction, the question of how much longer the AI euphoria can still justify the high valuations is increasingly coming into focus.

Lead-ins from Asia were initially positive. The mood described as a "stress test" drove shares of SK Hynix and Taiwan Semiconductor significantly higher in the Far East, which supported primarily technology-heavy exchanges in Asia, such as those in Japan or Taiwan. Japan's Nikkei jumped past the 72,000-point mark.

Trading on Wall Street was also quiet the previous Friday, as US exchanges were closed. Investors were therefore hoping for fresh impulses from New York at the start of the week. In addition, the successful IPO of the aerospace company SpaceX fueled AI euphoria on international technology markets.

Hochtief Replaces Porsche SE in the DAX

In the DAX, the index reshuffle attracted attention. For the first time, Hochtief is being traded as a DAX stock, with Porsche Automobil Holding moving to the MDAX in return. Changes were also implemented in the second and third tiers, the MDAX and SDAX. Hochtief rose 0.4 percent at the start of trading, while Porsche Holding declined 1.8 percent.

According to market observers, the construction group Hochtief is benefiting from major contracts for the construction of billion-euro data centers, which have driven the share price. The current market capitalization is around 40 billion euros and has thus roughly tripled within a year.

Semiconductors and Wind Power in Focus

Semiconductor stocks were also in the spotlight. Infineon shares moved up almost four percent in early Xetra trading, leading the sector, supported by positive lead-ins from Asia. Analysts at Bernstein had raised the price target for Infineon to 102 euros from 74 euros and see the company as the main beneficiary of power semiconductors.

BE Semiconductor, STMicroelectronics, ASML, and Aixtron also rose between 0.9 and 2.2 percent. Nordex shares gained 2.7 percent in early trading. Since the monthly low, shares of the wind turbine manufacturer have gained almost 31 percent to just over 49 euros; the annual high awaits at 51.70 euros.

The background is initial larger US orders for Nordex. Ajay Patel of Goldman Sachs sees progress by the Hamburg-based company in the US in these orders. His price target for Nordex is 53.20 euros, slightly above the annual high. Patel sees the entire onshore industry continuing to be on the upswing.

Software stocks showed a clearly weaker tendency. Ongoing concerns about negative effects of AI applications on the software business weighed on SAP, down 0.8 percent, Capgemini, down 0.9 percent, and Scout24, down 0.7 percent.

Geopolitics: Negotiations Between the US and Iran

On the foreign exchange market, the euro was slightly lower against the dollar at $1.1448. Bitcoin/USD rose 0.7 percent to $64,193.25. Among precious metals, gold gained 0.9 percent to $4,195.39, silver 2.2 percent to $66.34, and platinum 0.7 percent to $1,675.15.

Geopolitics had a greater influence on sentiment. In Switzerland, negotiations between the US and Iran on the resolution of the Iran war had begun over the weekend at the Swiss luxury resort Bürgenstock. The issue of Lebanon hung over the talks like a sword of Damocles, according to negotiation circles.

The US government had originally wanted the talks to focus on the Iranian nuclear program. According to the mediating states Pakistan and Qatar, the US and Iran agreed in Switzerland on the creation of a mechanism to ensure the end of military operations in Lebanon.

In a joint statement by the mediators, it was said that encouraging progress had been made, including the creation of a mechanism for further talks. The talks had taken place in a "positive and constructive atmosphere." The goal remains, as provided for in the framework agreement, to reach a "final agreement" within 60 days.

Oil Price and Commodities

The start of talks at the level of chief negotiators was overshadowed by ongoing Israeli attacks in Lebanon. Previously, Iran had again blocked the Strait of Hormuz, citing renewed Israeli attacks on the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Shipping traffic through the strait has so far remained subdued. Sea mines must first be cleared, production ramped up, and storage refilled before the oil supply normalizes, it was said. Oil prices remain at their lowest level since the war began; a barrel of Brent fell by around 1 percent to just under $80.

Easyjet: Third Takeover Offer Rejected

Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank, was cautious: "One must not get overconfident; it is likely to take until the middle of next year before the oil price reaches its pre-war level of just under $70 again." His house sees the DAX clearly above the 25,000-point mark only in the medium term.

Easyjet made headlines in the British market. According to Castlelake, the British low-cost airline also rejected a third non-binding takeover offer from the US investor. Castlelake had offered Easyjet on June 20 to acquire all shares for 625 pence per share in cash. The latest offer represents a premium of 59 percent over the closing price of 394.20 pence on May 28.

It also included a partially share-based alternative offer, allowing shareholders to remain invested in Easyjet. Castlelake now has until June 26 to submit a binding takeover offer or withdraw its offer. The Easyjet board had previously rejected offers of 560 pence and 600 pence. The Easyjet share was trading 1.8 percent higher shortly after the start of trading.

In Paris, Danone declined 0.6 percent. The company is strengthening itself with the acquisition of the Australia-based manufacturer of healthy foods Made Group. Financial details were not disclosed. BMW rose 0.3 percent after analysts at Bank of America raised their rating on the stock to Neutral.

The aerospace company OHB is offering new shares at a unit price of 300 euros as part of its planned capital increase. The gross proceeds could thus amount to up to 510.7 million euros. In addition, investor KKR is offering up to just under 1.23 million existing shares. OHB fell 2.8 percent to 394 euros.