DeutschlandTrend: AfD leads the Union by the widest margin ever recorded

The shift comes during a political phase in which Chancellor Merz, following the resignation of Jens Spahn as parliamentary group leader of the Union, has filled several government positions anew. Thus, the former Health Minister Nina Warken was appointed as head of the Federal Chancellery; Carsten Linnemann succeeded her in the Health Ministry. In the Federal Ministry of Transport, Steffen Bilger replaced the previous officeholder Patrick Schnieder. All four personnel decisions concern CDU politicians and were meant, according to the federal government's account, to mark a fresh start in the cabinet.

Cabinet reshuffle without an effect on sentiment

The cabinet reshuffle, however, does not translate into a trend reversal in favor of the Union. On the contrary: the gap to the AfD is growing, even though Union supporters, according to the poll, largely welcome the change at the top of the parliamentary group. Observers interpret the finding as an indication that the personnel changes alone cannot offset voters' dissatisfaction with the successor government to the "Ampel" coalition.

Among the smaller parties, the mood picture is mixed: the Greens can slightly improve their figure, and the Left also gains marginally. The FDP continues to hover around the five-percent threshold. The SPD and the Union lose in parallel, so that the camp of the governing parties overall continues to shift in favor of the opposition parties.

Economic skepticism among respondents

The survey was conducted, according to the polling institute, from Monday to Wednesday of this week — that is, immediately after the announcement of the personnel decisions in the cabinet. It thus represents the first representative sentiment measurement since the change at the top of the Union's parliamentary group. The methodological design of the survey — telephone interviews with eligible voters — was not changed compared with previous waves.

In their assessment of the economic situation, respondents signal predominantly skepticism. A majority considers the economic development to be poor, and personal economic expectations also remain subdued. This assessment corresponds with the rise of the AfD, which in previous surveys had benefited disproportionately from voters with economic concerns.

Consequences for the coalition

At the same time, a growing number of respondents view political stability in the country with unease. Confidence in the government's capacity to act is declining, while satisfaction with democracy overall is slipping slightly. Both figures are indicators that research regards as early warning signs of a growing distance between citizens and institutions.

For the Union, the finding means a double burden: on the one hand, it must stop its own downward trend; on the other, its gap to the SPD as the smallest partner in the government is shrinking. As a result, the internal balance of the coalition is coming under greater pressure. In the coming weeks, the question of whether the cabinet reshuffle has political traction is likely to dominate debates in Berlin.