Trend Barometer: AfD Remains Strongest Force, Merz's Union at 21 Percent

Methodology of the Forsa Survey

Observers interpret the Union's stagnation as confirmation of the polling low that has persisted for weeks for Friedrich Merz. Despite unchanged figures, pollsters see no signs of a short-term trend reversal. The coming weeks will have to show whether issues from the political agenda could reduce the gap to the AfD.

It is noteworthy that the Greens are holding their third place, while the Union is unable to close the distance to the AfD. The gap between the AfD and the Union amounts to seven percentage points, which represents the largest measured lead of the opposition party over the governing party in the current Trend Barometer.

The Forsa data are based on a representative survey and are collected weekly on behalf of RTL and ntv. The Sunday question measures party preference in the event of a Bundestag election on the coming Sunday. The methodology and sample size have been standard for political opinion polls in Germany for years.

Political Assessment of the Stagnation

The published figures reflect exclusively the Sunday question; changes in the Sunday figures are expressly not reported in the evaluation. Thus, no dynamics can be discerned from the present survey for the smaller parties such as the SPD or the Left, whose figures also remain unchanged compared to the previous week.

For the political debate in Berlin, the result means that the question of how to deal with the AfD as the strongest force continues to take center stage. The Union, meanwhile, is confronted with the challenge of reducing its deficit without altering its own programmatic lines.

Outlook for the Coming Weeks

Overall, the Trend Barometer shows a phase of political stability at a high level of tension: voter preferences have solidified between the camps, with the AfD asserting its first place and the Union trailing behind its own expectations. The coming political events will show whether this configuration holds.