Directional Election in Armenia: Pashinyan Seeks Third Term Under Pressure from Moscow

Starting Point: A Choice Between West and East

Prime Minister Pashinyan is seeking a third term with his "Civil Contract" party. He had recently signaled heightened interest in closer ties to the European Union. Corresponding messages went out from the EU-Armenia summit in early May, at which French President Emmanuel Macron also appeared publicly alongside Pashinyan. At the meeting of the European Political Community in Yerevan, the partners also signed an agreement on the modernization of Armenian transport infrastructure, the diversification of energy supply and the expansion of digital networks. Pashinyan reaffirmed the long-term goal of his country's EU accession.

The opposition is fragmented. Among its most influential actors are the oligarch Karapetyan, who is under house arrest, and his party "Strong Armenia," as well as former President Kocharyan, who leads the electoral alliance "Armenia." Both are considered pro-Russian. The oligarch Samvel Karapetyan, whose fortune from the Russian gas and real estate business is estimated at around 4.5 billion US dollars – roughly half of the Armenian state budget – has been under house arrest for about a year on allegations of plotting a coup. The Armenian constitution bars him from the office of prime minister due to his additional Russian citizenship. The official campaign leader for "Strong Armenia" is his nephew, Narek Karapetyan.

Putin Under Pressure: Moscow's Threats to Yerevan

The Caucasus republic has traditionally maintained close relations with Moscow. But in recent months, the relationship has cooled significantly. As recently as April, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin received the Armenian head of government, Nikol Pashinyan, in Moscow. Putin was angered that Yerevan had officially committed itself to the goal of EU accession. That was incompatible with membership in the Moscow-dominated economic union, the EAEU, Putin let his guest know. "There are strong pro-Russian forces in Armenia; he would like them to participate in the election as well," Putin said. But some of them were in custody, even though they held a Russian passport, the Kremlin chief complained.

Pashinyan rejected the reproaches: "Our social networks, for example, are one hundred percent free," and there are no political prisoners in his country either. Shortly thereafter, the energy ministry in Moscow threatened to terminate a favorable gas supply contract, and finally Putin publicly reminded Yerevan that the conflict with Ukraine had also once begun with the country's striving to join the EU. At the summit of the Eurasian Economic Union in Astana, Kazakhstan, at the end of May, Putin warned again: "The crisis in Ukraine began with the aspirations to join the EU. We were not against it, but said: 'Listen, the plant protection standards, for example, are completely different. They cannot coexist.'" Pashinyan must decide soon which direction he wants to go, and the people should decide in a referendum.

Putin also said he wished the Armenian people to decide on the course in a referendum. Pashinyan replied in a video message: "The question of when this referendum will take place is very important. But until Armenia has submitted an official membership application or moved closer to EU candidate status, it is illogical to hold a referendum." At the same time, he described relations with Russia as "in a phase of transformation," which he assessed positively. New relations were being built, "since our relations with Russia are transparent and sincere, and we have nothing to hide."

Economic Dependence and Russian Sanctions

Economic dependence on Russia is considerable: estimates range from 40 to over 60 percent, including preferential prices for oil and gas deliveries. Russia has increasingly restricted the import of Armenian goods – flowers and an entire list of foodstuffs were placed on the index by the Russian consumer protection authority, allegedly due to quality defects. Moscow has already employed this mechanism in earlier conflicts: certain products were always deemed defective whenever a country's political relations with Moscow deteriorated. From the European Commission's perspective, this approach is unacceptable. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke of "economic coercion" and announced an aid package of 50 million euros for Armenia.

The Shadow of Nagorno-Karabakh

The tensions are set against the backdrop of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenia had signed a peace agreement with Azerbaijan last year after its defeat in the most recent war, declaring its renunciation of the region contested for decades. The arch-enemy Azerbaijan attacked the Nagorno-Karabakh region disputed between the two neighboring countries and conquered it completely after brief, heavy fighting. Around 100,000 ethnic Armenians had to flee from there to the mainland. Many of the three million Armenians do not agree with this. Azerbaijan is traditionally supported by Turkey, Armenia in principle by Russia. But Moscow remained largely passive during the latest armed conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, presumably also because of the challenges of its war of aggression against Ukraine. Armenia is militarily too weak for a counterattack.

Internationally, Pashinyan was nevertheless able to win backing. Just a few days ago, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in the capital, Yerevan. Most recently, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio even made a stopover in Yerevan to sign a bilateral cooperation agreement. The head of government also succeeded in gaining international support for this, for instance from US President Donald Trump's administration. In early May, French President Emmanuel Macron and Pashinyan in Yerevan had jointly tried to play Charles Aznavour's "La Bohème" on the piano – a gesture laden with symbolic significance. At the EU-Armenia summit, a partnership agreement was also signed, aimed at modernizing Armenian transport infrastructure, diversifying energy supply and expanding digital infrastructure.

Tailwind from Washington and Brussels

Critics decried the Western approach as campaign assistance for the ruling party. The head of the South Caucasus office of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Jakob Wöllenstein, said on Deutschlandfunk that the US and the EU had an interest in the country with a view to a possible trade corridor in the Caucasus. Armenia was also a democratic pioneer in the region. Many took the view that, as the oldest Christian country, it belonged to the broader sphere of European civilization. In surveys, a majority of the Armenian population stated that they wanted EU accession in the long term, and at the same time a balanced foreign policy that seeks to enter into many partnerships.

"The mood in the country has turned," observes also Jacob Wöllenstein, the political director of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in the South Caucasus. The government's work is now being assessed more positively, especially on the question of peace and security, which is important to many people. "Even if many people don't like Pashinyan, there is no alternative." The parts of the opposition perceived as Kremlin-loyal are in any case not it. He also told the Deutsche Presse-Agentur that Pashinyan had been successful in creating new jobs. Nevertheless, surveys show that the opposition forces considered more Kremlin-friendly are catching up with Pashinyan.

Mood in the Country: Skepticism Toward Both Camps

In the small town of Jermuk, a freight forwarder named Gework captures the mood of many citizens. "We won't squander our future over two shipments of flowers," he says with a view to the Russian trade restrictions. He is no big fan of Pashinyan, but he thinks even less of the pro-Russian parties around billionaire Samvel Karapetyan or former President Robert Kocharyan, who is regarded as a Putin friend. "I don't want to go back to the Soviet Union." The opposition continues to accuse Pashinyan of betraying national interests, but it does not seem to offer a credible alternative to his policies.

The campaign was marked by disinformation, threats and accusations. Should none of the political forces ultimately be able to form a majority government, Armenians would have to vote again in four weeks. It is now being awaited with tension whether Pashinyan can confirm the course of cautious opening toward the West that he has embarked on, despite the growing pressure from Moscow – or whether the pro-Russian forces in the small Caucasus country will regain ground. This report was broadcast on 07.06.2026 on Deutschlandfunk. An accompanying report is scheduled for Sunday at 12:45 on ARD's Europamagazin.