Ethiopian Parliamentary Elections: Abiy Ahmed Seeks Third Term Amid Tense Environment

Weakened Opposition and Restricted Press Freedom

The opposition is fragmented and weakened. In dozens of constituencies, the ruling Prosperity Party is running unopposed. Opposition representatives report denied permits and intimidation, and press freedom is severely restricted. In the last parliamentary election in 2021, Abiy Ahmed's party won over 90 percent of the seats; a similar outcome is expected this time.

The 49-year-old Abiy Ahmed has been Prime Minister since 2018 and received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for his rapprochement with neighboring Eritrea. Today, relations with almost all neighboring countries are strained. Ethiopia is considered a hotbed of unrest in the Horn of Africa.

No elections are being held in the Tigray region, which is seeking autonomy and where more than 600,000 people died between 2020 and 2022. The TPLF liberation movement, banned by Addis Ababa, has been back in power there for several months. Armed groups are also fighting against the central government in the Amhara and Oromia regions. In total, several million people will not be able to vote.

Regional Conflicts and Millions Without the Right to Vote

The political climate in Ethiopia is extremely tense; criticism of the government is only possible to a limited extent. Political scientist Moses Chrispus Okello told DW in Addis Ababa: "The Ethiopian elections are less a genuine democratic competition and more a mechanism for maintaining state legitimacy – in an environment of weakened opposition, regional instability, and growing geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa."

Despite high growth rates of 9.2 percent, a large part of the population lives in poverty. 40 percent of the approximately 135 million inhabitants are in absolute poverty. Poverty is particularly high in rural areas, and young people find it difficult to find work. Around 250,000 people leave the country annually. At the same time, Abiy Ahmed has massively modernized the capital Addis Ababa, which in parts resembles Dubai, and is building a new palace above the city estimated to cost ten billion dollars.

Analyst Kebour emphasized that foreign policy issues play a minor role for voters. "Foreign policy issues have only a limited influence on ordinary voters in Ethiopia and Africa in general – compared to immediate social and economic problems such as inflation, unemployment, insecurity, corruption, rising transport costs, and declining living standards," he said.

Economic Hardship Despite Growth

Nevertheless, numerous foreign policy crises overshadow the election. Ethiopia and Egypt are in dispute over Nile water since the massive GERD dam became operational. Sudan accuses Addis Ababa of supporting the RSF militia in its civil war. A port agreement that Abiy concluded with the breakaway region of Somaliland has angered Somalia.

A Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2024, through which Ethiopia sought access to the Red Sea and important trade routes – in exchange for formal recognition of Somaliland – had caused additional dispute. Israel's recognition of Somaliland at the end of 2025 further escalated the situation. Somalia reacted with anger, and the Houthi militia in Yemen, allied with Tehran, threatened. Houthi leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi stated, according to dpa, that "any Israeli presence in Somaliland" would be considered a military target by the Houthi forces.

Okello warned of a possible escalation of the conflict: "If Israel intensifies its activities and links them with other relationships involving Ethiopia and Abu Dhabi, the conflict could spread to other theaters." At the same time, there is a threat of war with Eritrea over access to the Red Sea, which Abiy Ahmed describes as "existential." The Eritrean port of Assab is often mentioned in this context, located only about 75 kilometers from the Ethiopian border – much to the concern of the government in Asmara.

Geopolitical Tensions in the Horn of Africa

Okello added: "A war between Eritrea and Ethiopia would further strain the US, the Emirates, and other actors who are already heavily involved in the Middle East. This would spread the so-called middle superpowers across too many conflict zones simultaneously." The election results are expected to be published in about ten days. The national parliament will then determine the Prime Minister.