FAO and OECD expect significantly more agricultural production by 2035 – with rising emissions

Growth Markets and Price Trends

According to the FAO and OECD forecast, real international agricultural commodity prices are expected to remain largely stable or slightly below current levels over the next decade. The global average gross agricultural income per worker is expected to rise by 9 percent by 2035, attributable to productivity gains and largely stable agricultural prices.

Global demand for biofuels is forecast by the FAO/OECD outlook to increase by 1.4 percent annually over the next ten years, driven primarily by Brazil, India, and Indonesia. In most high-income countries, "growth is expected to slow as policy incentives wane and the adoption of electric vehicles increases."

Warning of Risks and External Shocks

FAO Director-General QU Dongyu said the resilience of systems must be strengthened: "Um das Produktivitätswachstum in den Agrar- und Ernährungssystemen aufrechtzuerhalten, müssen wir ihre Widerstandsfähigkeit stärken". He also stressed that "es nicht darum, den letzten Schock zu überstehen, sondern sich auf den nächsten vorzubereiten".

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann pointed to the current burden on farmers: "Unsere Agrar- und Ernährungssysteme stehen unter Druck, und unsere Landwirte sind an vorderster Front von den steigenden Energie- und Düngemittelkosten betroffen". The FAO and OECD experts caution, however, that their forecast remains vulnerable to market fluctuations caused by crises and conflicts.

Should the average 33 percent increase in energy prices observed in the first half of 2026 continue in the second half, global cereal production would decline by 0.9 percent in 2027. The "Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035" is based on data from 2025 and has not yet taken the impacts of the Iran war into account.

Focus on Asia, Africa, and Latin America

The report contains no specific figures on Austrian agriculture.

The outlook jointly produced by the FAO and OECD thus paints a mixed picture: more food for a growing world population, but higher emissions and a sensitive dependence on energy prices, conflicts, and policy frameworks.

The authors emphasize that productivity gains are crucial in order to meet growing demand without placing additional strain on the environment. Investments in more sustainable cultivation methods, more efficient fertilizer use, and more climate-resilient varieties are regarded as central levers.

The report also highlights the growing importance of Latin America, Asia, and Africa as production regions. In these regions, experts expect the largest share of the increase, while production in Europe and North America is likely to largely stagnate.