UN Secretary-General: Grynspan Leads in First Straw Poll

Q: Who is Rebeca Grynspan?

Rebeca Grynspan is a diplomat from Costa Rica and the current Secretary-General of UNAIDS; she leads the field of seven candidates after the first straw poll.

Q: Who is Rafael Grossi?

Rafael Grossi heads the International Atomic Energy Agency and, according to the informal vote, ranks narrowly behind Grynspan in second place.

Q: How is the UN Secretary-General selected?

The Security Council conducts several informal straw polls before nominating a candidate; the General Assembly then confirms the choice in a secret vote.

New York, July 30, 2026 In the first informal straw poll in the UN Security Council on the succession of António Guterres, Costa Rican Rebeca Grynspan received the most signals of support, narrowly ahead of Rafael Grossi. According to diplomatic circles in New York, Grynspan secured the highest number of votes in the poll, counted as "encourage," "discourage," or "no opinion." Grossi, currently head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, followed closely behind. The procedure is part of a multi-stage selection process in which the fifteen members of the Security Council work through the candidacies several times before the General Assembly makes a formal decision. ## Starting Situation: Seven Candidacies, One Top Post Alongside the two front-runners, five other figures are vying for the position: former UN Under-Secretary-General Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, former Senegalese President Macky Sall, former Ecuadorian Foreign Minister María Fernanda Espinosa, Chile's former President Michelle Bachelet, and Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu. According to the correspondent's report, "bisher stehen sieben Kandidaten und Kandidatinnen im Rennen um das diplomatische Spitzenamt." According to council circles, several candidates were marked "no opinion" in the first vote, suggesting that individual council members have not yet named a clear favorite. The votes are considered non-binding, but serve as an important indicator of the political mood within the council. Neither the council presidency nor the secretariat released official figures; the results leaked to the press through involved ambassadors. ## Procedure: Informal Signals from the Security Council The procedure follows the established pattern of recent years: the permanent council members can reject a candidacy with a "veto," but no name has been ruled out so far. Grynspan, currently Secretary-General of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), can count on the support of the Group of Latin American and Caribbean States, while Grossi is regarded in Western Europe and parts of Latin America as a technically adept candidate. The selection is considered politically sensitive because the future Secretary-General would lead the UN amid multiple international crises – from Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine to the Middle East conflict. At the same time, the institution faces massive cuts to its core programs, increasing pressure on the Security Council to find a person who can convince both diplomatically and financially. ## Political Context: Crises and Austerity According to the council's wishes, further straw polls are to follow in the coming weeks. Traditionally, the number of "encourage" and "discourage" markings for promising candidates rises with each round, while candidacies without sufficient support are withdrawn. Observers expect the field to narrow to three or four names by the end of the year. A central criterion in the informal deliberations is the regional rotation rule, which has so far alternated between the African, Asia-Pacific, Eastern European, Latin American and Caribbean, and Western European groups. Since António Guterres hails from Portugal and is thus counted toward the Western European group, diplomatic circles expect the next Secretary-General to come from another region – which additionally favors the candidacies of Grynspan and Otunnu. ## Regional Rotation and the Gender Question Women have so far led the United Nations only three times: with former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark as head of UNDP, as well as with António Guterres himself, who succeeded Ban Ki-moon. Should Grynspan or one of the other female candidates win the race, Bachelet would become the first woman at the head of the world organization – a circumstance repeatedly invoked in council deliberations as a historic argument. By the end of Guterres's current term in December 2026, the Security Council must nominate a candidate, who is then confirmed by the General Assembly. The 193 member states vote by secret ballot, with the council's recommendation being adopted in practice. Official statements from the candidates or their home governments were not available at the time of the vote. The UN Office of Internal Oversight merely stated that the selection process was proceeding "transparent und im Einklang mit den resolutionen der Generalversammlung."

First Straw Poll on Guterres's Successor: Grynspan Leads, Grossi Close Behind

Starting Situation: Seven Candidacies, One Top Post

Procedure: Informal Signals from the Security Council

Political Context: Crises and Austerity

Regional Rotation and the Gender Question

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