Candidates for Guterres succession face the UN General Assembly in New York

Latin American dominance in the candidate field

Former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet is applying, in her own words, at a moment "an dem die Welt keine weitere Bekräftigung multilateraler Ideale braucht. Sie braucht Ergebnisse: eine Organisation der Vereinten Nationen, die Krisen früher verhindert, kohärenter reagiert, effektiver handelt und das Vertrauen in den Wert kollektiven Handelns wiederherstellt." Bachelet is described as a "reform-oriented multilateralist."

As Secretary-General, she wants to tackle the necessary changes "im Einklang mit unseren gemeinsamen Interessen bewältigen, zu den Grundlagen unseres globalen Engagements zurückkehren und Wege zum Frieden ebnen", as stated in her application. However, her positions are controversial: Bachelet also defends the right to choose an abortion with the words: "Frauen müssen selbst über ihr Leben entscheiden, auch darüber, wie viele Kinder sie haben wollen." This stance is considered "too woke" by many Republicans in the US Congress, which is why US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been called upon to veto Bachelet.

Bachelet between reform ambitions and political headwinds

Alongside Bachelet, Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis is another Latin American candidate. She too is banking on multilateral reforms. Her application states: "Selbst in Zeiten der Spaltung können multilaterale Institutionen echte, positive Wirkung erzielen."

The only male Latin American candidate is the Argentine Rafael Grossi, who heads the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). He has been Director General of the IAEA since 2019 and is regarded as an experienced mediator in nuclear conflicts. UN observers such as Maya Ungar of the independent think tank Crisis Group see good chances for Grossi given his experience: "In seiner Rolle musste er mit vielen großen Playern wie USA, China und Russland sprechen, vermitteln, mit ihnen in ständigem Austausch bleiben und medial präsent sein."

Grossi: Mediator between the great powers

Grossi himself stated: "Meiner Organisation ist es gelungen, im ukrainischen Atomkraftwerk Saporischja die einzige Präsenz einer multilateralen Einheit aufzubauen, um eine Nuklearkatastrophe im Krieg abzuwenden." The number of UN peacekeepers was at its lowest level in 25 years in 2025, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

Former Guyanese Foreign Minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett summed up the challenge: "Ein Luxus, den sich ein UN Generalsekretär nicht leisten kann, ist, es nicht zu versuchen." She thereby pointed to the expectation that the next Secretary-General must also seek solutions in blocked bodies.

That the time was ripe for a woman at the top had already been stressed by Guterres himself at the end of January during his traditional annual press conference in New York: "Es ist eindeutig Zeit für eine Frau an der Spitze der Vereinten Nationen." The President of the UN General Assembly, former German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, had previously also spoken out in favour of a woman. Baerbock asked: "Wie kann es sein, dass es in 80 Jahren noch nie eine Frau als Generalsekretärin gab, obwohl die Hälfte der Weltbevölkerung, der wir dienen sollen, Frauen und Mädchen sind?"

Infantino as alleged Trump favourite

Not taking part is the alleged preferred candidate of US President Donald Trump: FIFA boss Gianni Infantino. In a report by the US tabloid "New York Post" this week, it was said Trump could put forward the president of world football's governing body, with whom he enjoys excellent relations. UN expert Richard Gowan was sceptical: "Infantinos Name taucht schon seit einiger Zeit in Diskussionen über mögliche Außenseiterkandidaten für das Amt des UNO-Generalsekretärs auf – allerdings häufig eher ironisch als ernsthaft." Even if the Swiss were nominated by the US, Gowan has doubts: "Er wird inzwischen so eng mit dem US-Präsidenten in Verbindung gebracht, dass insbesondere China und Russland seine Unparteilichkeit infrage stellen würden."

The personnel decision is initially made by the Security Council as the most powerful UN body. As set out in Article 97 of the UN Charter, there is a multi-stage procedure: the 15 members of the Security Council deliberate and vote on a recommendation, requiring at least nine votes of the 15 members. The 193 member states of the General Assembly then vote on the Security Council's recommendation.

Blocked Security Council as the biggest hurdle

But the Security Council has been blocked for years. The veto powers, especially the US, Russia and China, have led the body into a dead end. Daniel Forti warned: "Wenn die sich nicht einig sind oder wenn sogar einer von ihnen selbst in einen Krieg involviert ist oder sogar selbst das Völkerrecht verletzt, indem er die territoriale Integrität eines anderen Staates angreift, ist der Sicherheitsrat handlungsunfähig." Criticism of the veto states is risky for the candidates, which is why others in the debate spoke about Afghanistan, Gaza or the Strait of Hormuz.

Grossi himself posted on X: "Mehr denn je bleibt ein neu gestalteter Multilateralismus der beste Weg, um auf die Herausforderungen einer Welt im Umbruch zu reagieren." He thereby struck a chord with an organisation that must reposition itself between pressure for reform and geopolitical deadlock.

The candidates must do persuasive work in the coming weeks – not only in the Security Council, but also in the General Assembly. Should Bachelet actually be elected, she would be the first woman at the head of the United Nations in its 80-year history. Should Grossi be elected, he would be the first Latin American in this position in decades.

Outlook: Decision in autumn 2026

The debate in New York marks the kick-off of a decisive phase. Observers expect that the informal vote in the Security Council on 30 July will provide initial indications of who will follow Guterres in January 2027.

The news was broadcast on 24.07.2026 on Deutschlandfunk.