Berlin, April 28, 2026 Germany weakest employment outlook since pandemic IAB
Germany’s labor market is showing its weakest employment outlook since the COVID-19 pandemic due to industrial crises and an oil price shock, according to a new report by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB).
Labor Market Barometer Signals Decline
The IAB’s monthly employment barometer dropped to 99.4 points in April, indicating a negative trend in Germany’s labor market. The component measuring employment predictions fell by 0.2 points to the neutral threshold of 100 points—the lowest level recorded outside the pandemic period.
Meanwhile, the unemployment prediction component signaled a forthcoming rise in joblessness. The unemployment rate in March stood at 6.4%, but experts warn that geopolitical tensions and economic instability could exacerbate the situation.
Geopolitical and Economic Pressures
Among the 146 employment agencies surveyed, 20 cited the Iran conflict and its ripple effects as a key factor influencing their pessimistic forecasts. The ongoing industrial downturn, coupled with the oil price shock, has further strained Germany’s economic resilience.
Enzo Weber, head of the IAB’s Research Department for Forecasts, noted that the current conditions mirror the uncertainty seen during the pandemic. "The convergence of multiple crises—industrial, energy, and geopolitical—is creating a perfect storm for the labor market," he said.