Insa poll sees AfD in first place in Berlin for the first time

Personnel change at the CDU

The Insa poll was conducted after the withdrawal of Governing Mayor Kai Wegner as the CDU's lead candidate. In his place, Berlin's Finance Senator Stefan Evers is the new CDU lead candidate for the House of Representatives election. According to the available facts, Wegner remains Governing Mayor of Berlin.

Stefan Evers said in response to a dpa inquiry: „Es gilt, was wir immer gesagt haben: Wir lehnen jede Zusammenarbeit mit radikalen oder extremen Parteien ab. Das gilt auch für die AfD. Sie schadet unserem Land." The CDU, Greens, and SPD have ruled out a coalition with the AfD, according to their own statements.

Reactions from the parties

Steffen Krach, state chairman and lead candidate of the SPD, said: „Die Polarisierung, die CDU und Linke anheizen, schadet Berlin. Ich kämpfe um jede Stimme für eine neue SPD, weil ich unsere Stadt wieder zusammenführen will und nicht zulassen, dass die Rechtsradikalen in der deutschen Hauptstadt auf den ersten Platz marschieren."

Christoph Meyer, state chairman of the FDP, sharply criticized the CDU. He accused it of „verantwortet Rekordschulden, eine bisher nicht gekannte Verwahrlosung der Stadt, neue Belastungen für die Wirtschaft und verfehlte Wohnungsbauziele". The FDP accuses the CDU of abandoning fundamental convictions, according to the attributed statement.

Alongside the leading group, the BSW reaches 4 percent in the Insa poll and would thus remain below the threshold for entry into the Berlin House of Representatives. The remaining parties, which do not appear by name in the available data, collect a combined 8 percent.

Diverging Infratest Dimap figures

A different picture is painted by an Infratest Dimap poll for the public broadcaster RBB, which was published on July 16 and is also described as representative. According to it, the Left reaches 22 percent, the CDU 20 percent, followed by the Greens with 17 and the AfD with 16 percent. The SPD would reach 12 percent.

The differences between the two surveys are considerable. While Insa sees the AfD in first place, Infratest Dimap places the Left ahead and the AfD only in fourth place. The CDU's figures fluctuate between 18 and 20 percent, and the Greens' between 16 and 17 percent. Both polls were conducted within a week, underscoring the volatility of the political mood in the capital.

Methodologically, the surveys differ: Insa states that it surveyed 1,000 Berliners online, with the publication date being July 23, 2026. Infratest Dimap published its figures on July 16, 2026, on behalf of the public broadcaster RBB. The exact case numbers and the survey methodology of the Infratest survey are not broken down in detail in the available facts.

Coalition options and the threshold

Against the backdrop of the Insa figures, the debate over possible coalitions has intensified. The CDU, Greens, and SPD have ruled out cooperation with the AfD. The available facts do not provide detailed information on possible alliances beyond this excluded spectrum.

The Berlin House of Representatives election is on September 20. Further polls may be published before then that could shift the picture again. The available data do not allow a forecast of the election outcome; they merely describe the mood within a specific time window.

The timing of the survey is also noteworthy: it falls in a phase in which the CDU has swapped its lead candidate. Whether the change at the top stabilizes the CDU's figures, alters them, or triggers further movement will only become clear in future polls.

Outlook until the election

Overall, the Insa survey shows a tight constellation at the top, with the AfD narrowly ahead of the CDU and the Left. At the same time, the comparison with the Infratest survey makes clear how strongly poll results in Berlin are currently fluctuating and how dependent they are on the institute, the client, and the survey period.

The coming weeks until the election on September 20 will show whether the shift in mood measured by Insa solidifies or whether the dynamic tips toward other parties. Berlin thus remains one of the most contested capital regions in the upcoming election cycle.