BRUSSELS, April 16, 2026
The European Union is preparing emergency measures to address a potential kerosene shortage as conflicts in the Middle East disrupt fuel supplies and drive up prices, according to draft plans and industry warnings.
Refinery Capacity and Import Dependencies
The EU plans to survey and maximize refinery capacities across Europe to secure jet fuel supplies, though many facilities are already operating at their limits. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Europe imports 30% of its jet fuel needs, with 75% of those imports originating from the Middle East. The reliance on foreign supplies has become increasingly precarious as geopolitical tensions escalate.
Refinery capacities in Europe have declined in recent years, leaving little room to ramp up production domestically. "Our kerosene suppliers are changing their forecast periods and are no longer willing to provide outlooks beyond one month," said Lufthansa procurement executive Grazia Vittadini in an interview with Reuters. The uncertainty has forced airlines and governments to prepare for potential disruptions.
Price Surges and Shortage Warnings
Kerosene prices have soared since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route for Middle Eastern fuel deliveries. Airlines warn that further price hikes, flight cancellations, and grounded aircraft are likely if the conflict persists. The IEA predicts shortages could emerge by June if Europe can only replace half of its usual Middle Eastern imports.