RKI Analysis: Around 33,000 Additional Heat Deaths in Eight European Countries Since the Start of Summer

Excess Mortality as an Indicator

As the Robert-Koch-Institut had explained on Thursday, national civil registries and mortality data provide the basis for such extrapolations. The institutes compare actual deaths with statistically expected values for comparable periods – the difference yields the so-called excess mortality.

The European health authority ECDC and the World Health Organization WHO have been monitoring the development for weeks. Both organizations point to similar surveys by the European mortality monitoring system EuroMomo, which publishes Europe-wide weekly updated data on excess mortality.

Geographic Distribution of Deaths

The geographic distribution is striking: While Spain and Portugal recorded particularly high temperatures in the Mediterranean region, Belgium, France, and the Netherlands in Central Europe also reported significantly elevated figures. Germany and Austria lie at the northern edge of the affected zone but are also part of the statistics.

Experts emphasize that the level of excess mortality fluctuates from year to year – depending on the duration and intensity of heatwaves, the adaptation of the healthcare system, and the behavior of the population. Heat warning systems, air-conditioned public spaces, and awareness campaigns are considered effective countermeasures.

Health ministries in several countries had announced measures in advance, including expanded heat warning levels, mobile cooling stations in major cities, and information campaigns for caregiving relatives. The effectiveness of these measures is currently being evaluated.

Measures and Recommendations

The WHO recommends that older and chronically ill people avoid physical exertion on hot days, drink sufficient fluids, and keep living spaces cool. Employers are also called upon to schedule working hours in the early morning or late evening.

Climate researchers expect that the number of hot days in Europe will continue to increase in the coming decades. This also increases the risk of additional deaths unless consistent countermeasures are taken – for example, through climate-adapted urban planning and the expansion of early warning systems.

The current AFP analysis is based on national data as of the cutoff date and is continuously updated. Experts expect a further increase in documented cases by the end of the season should temperatures remain consistently high.

Reporting on the heat deaths comes in a phase in which the EU health authority ECDC is publishing its annual risk assessment for the summer. In it, heat is classified as a "serious health risk" and concrete protective measures for vulnerable groups are recommended.