Share of young people in Germany falls to around ten percent

Regional differences between East and West

The Federal Statistical Office points out that the societal ageing process varies considerably from region to region. In eastern Germany, particularly in states such as Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt or Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the share of younger people is generally lower than in western German states. Reasons include the migration of young people after school or after vocational training towards the west, as well as the comparatively low birth rates since the 1990s.

Within western Germany as well, there are clear differences between city-states and larger territorial states. As city-states with universities, training institutions and a large labour market, Hamburg and Bremen tend to have a higher share of 15- to 24-year-olds than many predominantly rural regions. Young people are often drawn to the major cities because training and study opportunities, as well as jobs, are concentrated there.

Consequences for pensions, the labour market and education

Demographers expect this development to continue in the coming years. If the high-birth-rate cohorts continue to age and the succeeding cohorts remain smaller, the share of younger people in the total population is likely to fall further. At the same time, the concrete development also depends on immigration, as young immigrants can raise the share of the 15-to-24 age group again.

The shift in the age structure has tangible consequences for many areas of society. In the pension insurance system, the ratio of contributors to pensioners is growing, in the world of work the number of incoming apprentices is declining, and in family policy municipalities face the task of adapting childcare and educational infrastructure to smaller birth cohorts.

The decline in numbers also makes itself felt in political representation. If adolescents and young adults make up only around ten percent of the population, their weight shrinks automatically in a purely demographic view. Associations such as the German Youth Ring (Deutscher Jugendring) or local youth rings therefore demand that young people be more strongly involved in political decision-making processes, for example through voting rights from age 16 at all levels or through binding participation formats in cities and municipalities.

International comparison and outlook

International comparisons show that Germany is not alone with a share of around ten percent of young people. In many other European countries as well, such as Italy or Spain, the share of 15- to 24-year-olds is similarly low or even lower. The picture is different in some non-European states, where younger population groups are still considerably more strongly represented, for instance in numerous sub-Saharan African countries.

The Federal Statistical Office also notes that absolute figures and percentage shares do not say the same thing. Germany's total population has grown in recent decades through immigration, so that the absolute number of 15- to 24-year-olds has not declined to the same extent as their share of the total population. For political planning, for example in education or the labour market, both figures are relevant.

For the coming years, experts expect the topic of demographics to gain further political importance. The federal government, as well as the states and municipalities, face the task of responding to an ageing society – with measures in pension policy, the health system, family support and immigration policy. The current finding of the Federal Statistical Office is a central data point in this debate.

Kerstin Reinsch, an expert at the Federal Statistical Office, sees the decline in the share of young people as confirmation of a trend that has been emerging for years. She stresses that the age structure of a society is not static, but depends on many factors – on births, deaths and migration movements alike. Precisely for this reason, Reinsch says, continuous observation of demographic development is necessary.