SpaceX Cracks the Two-Trillion-Dollar Mark: IPO Delivers Musk a Stake Worth Over One Trillion Dollars

According to available information, Elon Musk holds around 50 percent of the shares, making his stake worth more than one trillion US dollars. According to SpaceX's own statements, Musk holds about 83.8 percent of the voting rights, even as he simultaneously leads Tesla, X, and other companies. Due to a lock-up provision, however, he may not sell his SpaceX shares for 366 days.

Numbers That Contradict the Record

The business figures preceding the record are nevertheless mixed. Last year, SpaceX generated revenue of 18.67 billion US dollars (a good 16 billion euros) and slipped into the red with a 4.94 billion dollar loss, according to the facts. The Starlink business is considered the only consistently profitable segment, while the AI business in the xAI environment continues to lose billions.

Regardless, some analysts are looking far ahead. Wolfe Research and Oppenheimer consider it possible that SpaceX could generate EBITDA of more than 90 billion US dollars by 2030. Oppenheimer initiated coverage with a buy rating and a price target of 190 US dollars, as Kiplinger reports. According to TipRanks, Emilee Deutchman added the stock to her coverage with a price target of 175 US dollars by the end of 2027, representing upside potential of nearly 9 percent from the last closing price. Her model is based on 16 times expected 2028 revenue and assumes that Starship will complete its first payload flights still this year.

Analysts Divided: From 63 to 190 US Dollars

Other observers are significantly more cautious. Keith Snyder rated SpaceX with a sell rating and a price target of 115 US dollars — well below the issue price — and described the valuation as nearly absurd given the growth rates required to justify it. Morningstar values SpaceX at 63 US dollars per share using a probability-weighted three-scenario model, representing a 53 percent discount to the issue price. In the most optimistic "Moon Landing" scenario, Morningstar sees an intrinsic value of 154 US dollars per share, to which the firm assigns a 7 percent probability. Analyst Nicolas Owens emphasizes that the result is less an expression of skepticism than of mathematics: the enormous range of possible business outcomes cannot be condensed into a single number.

Long-term optimism comes from Cathie Wood. Her Monte Carlo model produced a base value of 2.5 trillion US dollars for SpaceX by 2030 in December 2025. On June 14, ARK ETFs had acquired 3.29 million SpaceX shares for 444.3 million US dollars across four funds, making SpaceX the largest new position in the ARK ETF universe. The company itself sees the addressable market for its products at up to 28.5 trillion US dollars. SpaceX's next scheduled quarterly results release is planned for September 2, 2026.

Outlook: Starship and the Next Quarter

Since its founding in 2002, SpaceX has accumulated cumulative losses of 41.3 billion US dollars. The company is nonetheless traded by the market as a platform for spaceflight, artificial intelligence, and social media. In comments on the IPO, it is said that the previous buzzword of the "Magnificent Seven" for the major US tech stocks no longer fits, because with SpaceX another giant has joined that plays in a league of its own.