SpaceX stock falls below issue price for the first time since IPO

Record IPO and valuation

Shares closed their first trading day up a good 19 percent at around 161 dollars. With proceeds of 75 billion dollars at the issue price, it was the largest IPO ever. At the issue price alone, SpaceX was already worth 1.77 trillion dollars — more than, for example, Facebook parent company Meta.

The share placement made SpaceX CEO and major shareholder Musk the first person with a trillion-dollar fortune. The rapid initial price performance, however, was followed by a significant setback that has now pushed the shares below the issue price.

The price had previously risen to 225 dollars, driven in part by purchases from retail investors. In light of this dynamic, the company sought a valuation in the prospectus that went beyond its previous business performance.

Business figures and the AI market

In the prospectus, SpaceX estimated the future total market for artificial intelligence, including infrastructure, at more than 26 trillion dollars and cited this as a justification for the high valuation. Whether these expectations are sufficient to lift the price back above the issue price remains open.

The business figures underlying the IPO have so far shown a loss-making business. Last year, SpaceX posted losses of around 4.94 billion dollars on revenue of 18.67 billion dollars (just over 16 billion euros). The mismatch between losses and valuation is a central issue in assessing the stock.

Analysts are predominantly positive on the company. Deutsche Bank AG rated the stock "Buy" on 14 July 2026, having previously been given "Outperform" by Bernstein Research on 13 July 2026. UBS AG (9 July 2026, "Buy"), Deutsche Bank (7 July 2026, "Buy") and JP Morgan Chase & Co. (7 July 2026, "Overweight") also expressed optimism.

Analyst assessments

Despite the positive analyst voices, the market reacted sharply on Wednesday. Around midday New York time on Wednesday, the stock stood at around 133 dollars, slipping below the issue price for the first time. No reason for the recent weakness was apparent from the available data.

The volatility of the shares shows how strongly prices can be driven by speculative buying from individual investor groups. Retail investors had previously pushed the price up to 225 dollars; now professional market participants corrected the price downward.

Observers see the slide below the issue price as a first stress test for the company's valuation. The further course depends on whether SpaceX can meet the high expectations for the AI business and when the company will post its first profit.

Market reaction and outlook

The comparison with other major tech companies is once again coming into focus due to the price decline. At the issue price, SpaceX was valued at 1.77 trillion dollars — higher than Meta, the parent company of Facebook. With the current price loss, this valuation gap narrows, at least temporarily.

The placement is considered a milestone for the entire space industry. That the largest IPO in history should fall below its issue price so quickly raises questions about the sustainability of the valuation.

At the same time, the market pointed to the high level of retail investor interest, which had pushed prices significantly above fundamentally justified levels in the meantime. From the perspective of some observers, the correction is therefore a normalization.

Further trading on Wednesday and the reaction in the days that follow are seen as important signals. If the stock remains below the issue price on a sustained basis, this could permanently undermine confidence in the company's valuation.

Musk's stake in SpaceX is a key topic beyond the share placement. As a major shareholder and the first person with a trillion-dollar fortune, his wealth is directly tied to the further price performance of the stock.

Overall, the trading day makes clear that even a record IPO is no guarantee of stable prices. The combination of an ambitious valuation, existing losses and the prospect of a huge AI market is likely to continue to occupy the market.

In conclusion, after a spectacular upward move and an equally pronounced correction, SpaceX shares have now reached a critical juncture. The outcome of this phase is also likely to serve as an indicator for other upcoming tech IPOs.