Spahn resigns as parliamentary group leader – Union faction to elect successor on July 29

According to information from the Union, Merz and CSU chairman Markus Söder want to jointly propose a candidate to the faction for the succession. CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann and deputy faction chair Günter Krings (both CDU) are also being mentioned as possible candidates; as is Health Minister Nina Warken (CDU), who previously served as the faction's parliamentary secretary.

Candidates for the succession

However, Chancellery Minister Thorsten Frei (CDU) is considered the top favorite for the faction leadership. Frei, currently still a minister in the Chancellery, was already in the running a year ago as a candidate for the faction leadership but was then prevailed upon by the Chancellor to take on government work. Federal Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU), who had also been considered a possible successor, is now regarded as virtually ruled out. Merz said on Sunday regarding the personnel change: "Es könnte eine Gelegenheit sein, noch einmal über die Aufstellung der Bundesregierung nachzudenken."

According to Union circles, it is also a given that a new head of the Chancellery should come from parliament, i.e., be a member of the Bundestag. The idea of bringing in someone from outside parliament is considered dead in Union circles. If the new faction leadership comes from the cabinet or an important party headquarters, Merz and Söder would have to present at least two personnel decisions: one for the faction chair and one for the vacated government post. Appointment and swearing-in could then take place in the second week of September, the first regular sitting week of the Bundestag.

Timeline and open questions

Up until the coalition committee meeting in April at Villa Borsig, the two faction leaders, Jens Spahn for the Union and Matthias Miersch for the SPD, were at most onlookers in the preparations. Afterwards, Miersch and Spahn were integrated into the so-called Sherpa Group in order to involve the faction chairs earlier in government planning. Even though the surrogacy issue provided the immediate trigger for Spahn's resignation, the role of the faction leadership in government work had previously been a point of friction between the Union and the SPD.

According to Union faction circles, the faction plans to elect the successor on Wednesday, July 29, at 2:00 p.m. in a special session. The special session was announced on Monday, nine days before the election. The CDU/CSU Bundestag faction comprises 208 members.

Outlook: Federal President election and program

The CSU state group in the Bundestag will meet the following week, on Monday and Tuesday, for a retreat at Kloster Banz in Franconia. The backdrop is also the search for candidates for the Bundestag presidency and for the succession of Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD), which is due in January. From the Union, CSU leader Söder has the Bavarian state parliament president Ilse Aigner (CSU) ready as a possible candidate for the office of Federal President.

The candidate for the office of head of state is not expected to be named until after the state elections in September. The Union and SPD are expected to have the majority in the Federal Assembly to elect the next Federal President. In the Bundestag, the coalition has a majority of only twelve votes, which is why every mandate holder counts for the majority.

For the coming week, the coalition has also planned the presentation of its "Program for Upswing and Employment," in which the economic policy plans for the second half of the year are to be presented. In Union circles, filling the three variants with at least two personnel decisions is considered the most likely option: a change at the top of the faction and a change in the cabinet.

Merz had initially made contradictory statements about the timeline at a press conference in the Chancellery on Tuesday: first he announced a swift joint proposal with Söder, then he said: "Wir werden uns damit auch noch etwas Zeit lassen."