Study: 7.2 million German jobs linked to EU export demand

Sectors most exposed

"Sie bietet stabile und verlässliche Rahmenbedingungen, deren Bedeutung angesichts wachsender geopolitischer Unsicherheiten weiter zunimmt," the study says, referring to the EU's single market. The authors frame the predictability of EU rules as a competitive advantage at a time of heightened geopolitical risk, including uncertainty around trade relations with the United States and other major partners.

Bertram Brossardt, the head of the VBW, said the figures should guide policymakers in Berlin and Brussels. He argued that preserving the integrity of the single market, including the free movement of goods within the Schengen area, is essential for safeguarding employment in Germany's export-oriented industries.

Beyond the headline job figure, the study also traces the geographic concentration of EU-dependent employment. Bavaria and other southern German states with strong manufacturing bases feature prominently, alongside regions home to large chemical and automotive plants. The authors note that small and medium-sized suppliers, often operating below the radar of headline trade statistics, account for a sizeable share of the linked employment.

Geopolitical backdrop and U.S. trade frictions

The report comes as German exporters face a mixed global environment. Demand from several non-European markets has softened, while regulatory and tariff frictions with the United States have added to planning uncertainty for German manufacturers. In that context, the authors argue, the EU internal market functions as a stabilizing anchor for employment.

The VBW is urging policymakers to resist any moves that could fragment the single market, including new border controls within the Schengen area or divergent national rules on product standards. Such measures, the association warns, would raise costs for cross-border supply chains and ultimately put the 7.2 million linked jobs at risk.

Independent economists contacted by German media said the methodology of such studies typically draws on input-output tables that estimate how a euro of export demand translates into employment across supplier networks. While the precise figure depends on the assumptions used, they said the order of magnitude is consistent with earlier estimates of EU-related employment in Germany, which have ranged between roughly six and eight million jobs in recent years.

Policy recommendations from the VBW

The study does not break out country-by-country figures for German exports within the EU, but it points to the group's main destinations, including France, the Netherlands, Austria and Italy. Together, these neighboring markets absorb a large share of German-made machinery, vehicles and chemical products.

For the VBW, the policy implication is straightforward: deepening the single market and resolving remaining barriers to trade and procurement within the EU would, in the association's view, do more to support German employment than any single national industrial subsidy program. The authors recommend that Berlin treat the preservation of EU market access as a strategic priority in its upcoming legislative period.

The report is likely to feed into a wider debate in Germany about the country's economic model. Politicians from several parties have called for new trade agreements with non-EU partners to diversify exports, but industry groups have cautioned that such deals cannot quickly replace the volume and stability of intra-EU demand.