Ten Years After Brexit: Britain Between Economic Downturn and Political Reorientation

Economic Balance Sheet: Promises and Reality

Economically, Brexit has not fulfilled the expectations of many supporters. A comprehensive free trade agreement with the United States, which had been promised by Brexit supporters, did not materialise. Many of the trade deals concluded after the withdrawal were made with countries that already had corresponding agreements with the EU. Marc Lehnfeld of the German federal agency Germany Trade and Invest (GTAI) explained the situation: "Betrachtet man hilfsweise den Warenhandel nur auf Gewichtsebene, um also Preissteigerungseffekte zu vermeiden, liegt der Export von EU-Mitgliedsstaaten nach UK noch 14,1 Prozent unter dem Niveau von 2019". In particular, medium-sized companies had to question immediately after Brexit whether the existing business on the British Isles was still worthwhile after the introduction of the bureaucratic customs border, Lehnfeld continued. London's goal of developing into a barely regulated financial centre on the Singapore model was also not achieved.

The trade balance with the EU remains well below expectations. According to an analysis by the think tank Centre for European Reform, British imports from the EU are 16 percent below the level that would have been expected without Brexit. At times, Britain dropped out of the list of Germany's ten most important trading partners. Lehnfeld also described a market shakeout that mainly affected mail-order companies: "Unser anekdotischer Eindruck ist, dass es zu einer Marktbereinigung vor allem unter Versandhändlern kam, die den britischen Markt nicht mehr mitbedient haben".

Migration: From Hope to Campaign Issue

In migration policy too, Brexit failed to bring the hoped-for turnaround. Net migration to Britain has not fallen since the withdrawal, but risen significantly: in the twelve months to mid-2023, it reached a record of over 900,000 people. The most recent figures, at 204,000 people, were below that, but still at a high level. At the same time, more than 200,000 people have crossed the English Channel in small boats since 2018 to apply for asylum in Britain. These irregular crossings only began after Brexit, as the United Kingdom can no longer easily return migrants to EU states. Ironically, the boats became the most important campaign issue for Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage, whose party Reform UK now leads the polls and is thus on course to become prime minister.

Political Upheavals and New Power Relations

Politically, Brexit has fundamentally shifted the party system. The Labour Party lost a large share of its working-class voters to the Conservatives and to Reform UK after the referendum. Conversely, the Conservatives lost a significant share of their academically shaped middle-class voters. Leadership instability is unprecedented: the successor to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who had announced his resignation on Monday, will be the seventh head of government since the referendum. That is as many as in the 40 years before. In that period, Britain also had seven prime ministers.

At the same time, regional power relations have shifted. The top posts in the governments of Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales are now all held by members of independence parties. The desire for political autonomy has thus spread across the entire British periphery.

Shift in Sentiment: Majority for Return to the EU

Public opinion has now clearly turned. According to polls, a clear majority of Britons now favour re-joining the EU. Political science professor Anand Menon of King's College London attributes this partly to the fact that many Brexit supporters have since died. Wes Streeting, who stepped down from Starmer's cabinet as former health secretary, spoke in this context of a "catastrophic mistake". He called for a fresh start: "Wir brauchen eine neue besondere Beziehung zur EU, denn die Zukunft Großbritanniens liegt in Europa – und eines Tages wieder in der Europäischen Union". Andy Burnham, who is regarded as the favourite to succeed Starmer and is currently mayor of Manchester, also wished for a return in his lifetime.

Brexit supporters had dismissed economic warnings in the run-up as "Project Fear". Ten years later, it is clear that key promises have not been kept: neither was a far-reaching free trade agreement with the US concluded, nor did migration fall noticeably. Former prime minister Theresa May had once sought to make the departure an apparently irreversible fact with the slogan "Brexit means Brexit". The debate about a return to the EU has nevertheless not left the country – on the contrary.

For the coming years, everything suggests that the Brexit question will continue to occupy British politics. While Reform UK under Nigel Farage leads the polls with a strict anti-EU stance, the willingness among the population to revise the 2016 decision is growing. Britain thus faces a fundamental turning point, the consequences of which for the coming generation can hardly be overestimated.

The tenth anniversary of the referendum therefore marks less a conclusion than the beginning of a new phase in British European policy – with an uncertain outcome between economic recovery, political division and the prospect of a renewed rapprochement with the European Union.