Trump threatens Oman with bombing – dispute over Hormuz

The framework agreement and Muscat's role

According to the available information, a negotiated framework agreement between Tehran and Washington provides that Oman and Iran jointly develop a solution for shipping – in consultation with the riparian states and taking international law into account. This gives Muscat a key role in de-escalating the situation in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil transport passes.

Trump's threat was met with incomprehension. According to reports, Muscat reacted with surprise at the US president's choice of words. As recently as May, Trump had threatened in a direction that had also caused irritation in Muscat. This accumulation of direct attacks on a mediator who is actually considered reliable in Washington raises questions about future willingness to talk.

Why the Strait of Hormuz is at the center

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. Any disruption would have immediate consequences for the global energy market. Against this backdrop, the question of whether Oman remains willing to take on the mediating role – or whether Muscat steps back from the direct line between the conflicting parties – is gaining weight.

Observers interpret Trump's remark as a signal to Tehran, not to Muscat. The president is deliberately increasing pressure to move Iran toward concessions in the nuclear dispute – even at the cost of damaging Omani mediation. Muscat has repeatedly demonstrated in recent years that it can guarantee discretion and reliability, the news agency Associated Press writes.

Reactions and next steps

A response from the Sultanate itself is still pending. Diplomats in the region nevertheless see the relationship between Washington and Muscat at a low point.

It remains unclear whether Iran will use the incident as an occasion to break off the ongoing talks. A suspension would have immediate consequences for efforts to reach a diplomatic solution in the nuclear dispute and could further heighten tensions surrounding shipping in the strait.

How threatening the episode is to be assessed also depends on US behavior in the coming days. Muscat's foreign policy line is geared toward balance. A public threat from Washington contradicts this fundamental stance.

Should Muscat withdraw from its role as mediator, other channels – such as mediation through Qatar or Switzerland – would have to step in. This would further slow the already complicated negotiation process.