Voters with a migration background: SPD and CDU lose support

Background of the survey

Political assessment

In addition to the SPD, the analysis shows that other people's parties are also losing their grip on this voter group. The development is particularly relevant against the backdrop of the size of this population group in Germany: a significant proportion of eligible voters have a personal or family migration history, for example from Russia, Turkey, Poland, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, or Afghanistan.

At the same time, the AfD in particular, and to a lesser extent the Union of CDU and CSU, are benefiting from dissatisfaction with the established parties. The study thus paints a picture of increasing fragmentation of the electorate with a migration background, which can no longer be clearly assigned to one of the major parties.

Reactions and outlook

Political assessment

The results raise questions about the strategic direction of the people's parties. For the SPD, which in the past relied particularly on the votes of workers with a family history of immigration, the development could pose a noticeable challenge in the next federal election. The figures are also a warning signal for the CDU and CSU, which in recent years have increasingly courted voters with a migration background.

Long-term trends

Co-author Römer emphasizes that the parties would need to engage more strongly with classic social issues such as housing in order to stop the alienation. If the SPD does not deliver answers on issues such as affordable housing or social security, voters – with and without a migration background – will drift into abstention or toward protest parties.

Reactions and outlook

Political scientists see the data as an indication that classic patterns of alignment between social origin and party preference continue to erode. Particularly among younger voters with a migration background, there is a growing distance from all established parties.

For the upcoming election campaigns, this means that none of the major parties can rely on being automatically supported by this voter group. According to Römer, which parties can mobilize which voters with a migration background depends primarily on the credibility of the parties on concrete social issues.

Long-term trends

The analysis is part of a series of studies that have pointed in recent years to the declining binding power of the people's parties. The group of voters with a migration background long remained one of the few in which the SPD still performed above average. According to the new data, this particularity appears to be dwindling further.

The study itself was prepared on the basis of a representative survey comprising several waves. Dezim is an institute based in Germany that regularly conducts research on socio-political issues. The exact percentages and the full sample size are to be published in the coming days.