Saxony-Anhalt State Election: Political Scientist Sees Heterogeneous Coalitions as Driver of AfD's Rise

The backdrop to this assessment is the party landscape in Saxony-Anhalt, in which, alongside the CDU, SPD, and AfD, the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht as well as the FDP and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen are also running. Given the expected majority situation, a coalition of at least three partners is considered likely. In the past, Saxony-Anhalt has already had to form some unusual alliances in order to achieve governing majorities.

The scientist also pointed out that the AfD is polling consistently strong and thus assumes the role of a permanent opposition force. This position allows the party to present a united front against the state government without having to negotiate compromises itself. Other parties, by contrast, must make programmatic concessions, which blurs their profiles.

AfD as Opposition Party at an Advantage

In the expert's view, the lack of substantive profile of a broad government is a central factor in voters' growing dissatisfaction with the established parties. If the difference between the coalition partners is barely recognizable to citizens, attachment to a particular party also declines – an effect from which the AfD benefits.

For the current election campaign, this means that the CDU, SPD, BSW, FDP, and Greens must fight harder for substantive profiles if they want to form a coalition. Otherwise, according to the scientist, they run the risk that voters will respond to the absence of clear alternatives by voting for the opposition.

Conflict Lines of a Possible Coalition

Among the aforementioned forces, there are significant programmatic overlaps, for instance in economic and infrastructure policy, but also clear differences, for instance on questions of migration or energy policy. A future coalition would have to balance these tension fields, which experience shows requires compromises at the expense of recognizability.

The upcoming state election thus also serves as a litmus test of whether the non-AfD parties are capable of formulating a sufficiently unified offer to the electorate. If the offer remains vague, according to the expert, a further strengthening of the AfD is likely.

Looking Ahead to Election Day

At the same time, the political scientist emphasizes that responsibility for clarity does not rest with the parties alone. The media and civil society are also called upon to make the different positions visible and thus enable an informed voting decision.

The state returning officer has scheduled the election for September 2026. Should the prognosis of a heterogeneous governing coalition prove true, the question of substantive profile is likely to shape the political debate in Saxony-Anhalt well beyond election day.