Aoun Meets Trump: Lebanon Seeks Pressure on Israel

Pilot Zones in Southern Lebanon

The meeting comes against the backdrop of a security framework agreement signed by Israel, Lebanon, and the United States just last month. It provides for the establishment of so-called pilot zones in southern Lebanon. In these zones, the Israeli army is to withdraw first, after which the Lebanese army is to move in, take control, and push Hezbollah back. As the Lebanese army announced on Tuesday, units began operations in the morning in the town of Sautar al-Gharbija in the Nabatieh region. It is one of a total of three agreed pilot zones.

According to Middle East expert Dan Arbell of the American University in Washington, Trump is placing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu under pressure. Arbell said Trump and his advisors had been drawn into the war against Iran on the basis of Netanyahu's false assumptions — for instance, that an attack would lead to regime change in Iran. In Arbell's words: „Das ist aber nicht passiert.“ Should Trump believe that an Israeli withdrawal could help bring the Iranians to accept his demands, he will „überhaupt nicht davor zurückschrecken, Israel darum zu bitten“, according to Arbell.

Hurdle: Disarming Hezbollah

It was also reported from Washington that Trump recently called on Netanyahu to withdraw the Israeli army from both Lebanon and Syria. However, Israel is tying a comprehensive troop withdrawal to a condition: the disarmament of Hezbollah. Hezbollah has so far strictly refused to hand over its weapons.

Political scientist Anwar Mhajne of Harvard University described the mood in Lebanon as increasingly exhausted. „Die wirtschaftliche Lage, der Krieg, der ewige Konflikt mit Israel – das hat die Libanesen müde gemacht“, she said. At the same time, frustration is growing over the fact that Hezbollah places the Palestinian cause — particularly Gaza — above the interests of the Lebanese. „Die Libanesen frustriert es, dass die Hisbollah die palästinensische Frage - Gaza - vor die Interessen der Libanesen stellt“, said Mhajne.

Risks and Open Questions

The scholar sees a fundamental hurdle in the disarmament issue: „Es ist schwierig, einen wichtigen nicht-staatlichen Akteur, der irgendwann ein Teil des Staates wurde, zu entmilitarisieren“, she explained. Hezbollah attacked Israel after the Hamas attack on Israel roughly three years ago and has been embroiled in a longer conflict since.

The pilot zone model is described as a phased process that has only just begun. Its success depends essentially on whether the Lebanese army can actually take control in the selected areas and whether Hezbollah withdraws. Observers also see Aoun's Washington visit as a signal to Tehran: from the US perspective, a stabilization of Lebanon could shift the regional balance of power in Washington's favor.

Overall, it remains unclear how far Aoun will find a receptive ear with Trump on his concerns. The United States continues to rely on the Aoun–Salam axis in Beirut, but Washington's and the Lebanese government's interests are not aligned: while the US seeks the full disarmament of Hezbollah, parts of Lebanese politics fear that a swift break with the Shia militia could further destabilize the country.