ASML Raises 2026 Revenue Forecast Again, Riding the AI Boom

The numbers sparked excitement on the stock market. Shortly after the start of trading, ASML's share price in Amsterdam shot up to 1,678 euros. Most recently, the shares were up 5.7 percent at 1,644.40, leading the eurozone benchmark EuroStoxx 50. The record high of 1,741 euros from late June is still some distance away, however.

Stock Market Reacts with Surge

For the current third quarter, Fouquet forecast revenue of 11 to 12 billion euros and a gross margin between 55 and 57 percent. In the first half of the year, order intake had remained "extremely strong," Fouquet said. Strong demand from the AI sector had more than offset uncertainties in the China business.

The backdrop to the boom is massive investment by the tech industry. IT companies such as Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in expanding their computing capacity. And chipmakers such as market leader Nvidia are expanding their production capacity. Investments and advances around artificial intelligence are driving demand for advanced logic and memory chips, Fouquet said.

AI Boom Fuels Demand

ASML builds machines for chip production. It is the only company in the world that makes highly advanced lithography machines for manufacturing cutting-edge chips used to train AI models. The company is the world's sole supplier of ultraviolet lithography (EUV) equipment needed to produce AI semiconductors.

Customers such as TSMC, Samsung, and Micron are upgrading their manufacturing to meet demand for AI applications. Fouquet stated: "Our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans, which gives ASML better visibility into longer-term demand."

Capacity Expansion and Customers

Next year, ASML plans to expand capacity for standard ultraviolet lithography systems (low NA EUV) from the current 65 units by 30 percent and is considering an additional 30 percent expansion for 2028. Industry expert Simon Coles of British bank Barclays was thrilled with the business figures. The lithography systems specialist had exceeded its own targets with a strong quarter. In addition, order intake for EUV lithography systems in the first half likely reached a record level.

For Sandeep Deshpande of JPMorgan, however, the capacity plans signal that market earnings expectations for 2028 could turn out to be far too low. Analyst Janardan Menon of research firm Jefferies expressed disappointment with the plans for EUV systems. The market had recently expected a stronger capacity expansion.

China Risk and Export Controls

ASML also announced that US group Intel will be the first customer to use the new, even more powerful generation of ASML equipment. According to experts, ASML's production capacity could be fully booked through the end of 2027.

One factor of uncertainty remains the China business. The US is planning stricter export controls aimed at limiting the sale of high technology to the People's Republic. ASML is the most valuable publicly listed company in Europe.

Analyst Views on the Stock

Barclays rated ASML's stock "Overweight" on Wednesday, after JPMorgan had already assigned an "Overweight" rating on July 7, 2026. Both banks thus see further price potential for the chip equipment maker.

With the renewed forecast increase, ASML underscores its key role in the global semiconductor supply chain. Since the company is the world's only supplier of EUV lithography systems, progress in the production of the most advanced AI chips is closely tied to ASML's production capacity. The company thus sits at a strategic chokepoint of the tech industry.

Significance for the Semiconductor Market

For investors, the stock remains a heavyweight in the EuroStoxx 50 despite the record high of 1,741 euros from late June. The combination of rising demand, limited competition, and government-backed export controls makes ASML a central beneficiary of the AI cycle, according to analysts.

With the increase to up to 45 billion euros in revenue for 2026, ASML is significantly above the original annual forecast. Should the company reach the upper end of the range, this would mark another milestone in the Dutch group's growth story to date.