BDI warns of globally subdued growth due to Iran conflict

The bottlenecks in shipping have an immediate impact on supply chains, energy prices, and investment decisions of companies in Germany, Europe, and beyond, according to the BDI. Industrial locations in Germany depend on reliable imports of intermediate products and on stable export routes, Gönner emphasized.

Impact on Germany and Europe

At the same time, the association points out that the AI boom ongoing for months has so far only been able to cushion the economic consequences of the conflict in part. Investments in data centers, chips, and AI applications are supporting individual sectors, but cannot fully compensate for the broadly based burdens on trade and energy supply.

For China and the United States, which are also heavily dependent on the sea route through the Strait of Hormuz, the BDI sees significant risks. A longer-lasting disruption to the route would further drive commodity prices and complicate the fight against inflation in both economies. Europe would also be disproportionately affected, according to the association's assessment, as its industry is particularly energy-intensive.

Risks for China and the US

In Germany itself, Gönner warned that a mini-growth scenario is looming if the situation does not ease. The BDI expects industrial production to fall short of expectations in the current year and jobs in export-dependent sectors to come under pressure. Industrial production, which has lagged behind international competition for years, would thus receive another setback.

The BDI's warning joins a growing number of statements from German business associations that, amid geopolitical tensions, fear a broadly based economic cooling. The federal government is, in the association's view, called upon to contribute through foreign policy engagement and economic policy measures to stabilize the situation.

Demands on policymakers

Gönner also called for European energy and trade routes to be diversified more strongly in order to reduce dependence on the strait. This includes, for example, new pipeline projects, the expansion of LNG terminals, and a deepening of partnerships with energy suppliers outside the crisis region. Diplomatic initiatives for de-escalation are also urgently needed.

The BDI emphasizes that the ultimate economic consequences also depend on how quickly stabilization in the Middle East is achieved. If the Strait of Hormuz were navigable again and shipping normalized, the losses in growth would likely remain limited. However, if the fighting continues, the association expects noticeable drag marks on the global economy.