BSW announces abstention in Minister-President election in Saxony-Anhalt

With the announcement, the BSW is intensifying the debate over possible majorities after the election on 6 September. In the most recent polls, the AfD has been at 41 to 42 percent in Saxony-Anhalt, while the BSW itself was only seen at around 4 percent. It is therefore open which parties will clear the five-percent hurdle and which coalition options will mathematically result.

The "Magdeburg Model"

At the same time, Wagenknecht campaigned for her own "Magdeburg Model". She demanded „einen überparteilichen Ministerpräsidenten, der in wichtigen Fragen den Mehrheitswillen in Sachsen-Anhalt vertritt“. In talks with the other parties, one should „auf eine anerkannte Persönlichkeit verständigen", she said. She did not want to name specific names: „Jetzt als BSW konkrete Namen ins Spiel zu bringen, würde potenzielle Kandidaten beschädigen, weil sie dann als BSW-Kandidaten gelten würden."

Wagenknecht rejected the question of whether the BSW could help an AfD-nominated Minister-President to a majority. „Aber diese Frage stellt sich nicht. Unser Modell ist ein anderes“, she told dpa in early June. A "Bild" report had already raised the question at that time: „Verhilft Wagenknecht der AfD zur Macht?"

Abstention in the third ballot

Constitutionally, an abstention by the BSW in the third ballot would have significant consequences: in Saxony-Anhalt, a simple majority of votes cast is sufficient in the third ballot to elect the Minister-President. If the BSW abstained, a candidate supported only by parts of the parliament could secure a majority of the votes cast.

Wagenknecht has repeatedly made clear that she considers the firewall of the other parties against the AfD to be wrong. She also considers a model comparable to the one in Saxony-Anhalt conceivable in Thuringia: „Auch in Thüringen wäre es besser, einen im Land breit akzeptierten parteiunabhängigen Ministerpräsidenten zu suchen, der mit wechselnden Mehrheiten regiert – auch unter Einbeziehung der AfD“, she said.

Tensions with the Thuringian sister party

In Thuringia, the BSW is already governing in a coalition with the CDU and SPD. Wagenknecht, however, has long been critical of this participation in government, while the BSW state association in Thuringia stands by the coalition. The tension between the federal party and the Thuringian sister party is likely to intensify further in view of Saxony-Anhalt.

By committing to abstention, the BSW is taking away the other parties' option of securing their own majorities with BSW votes if necessary. At the same time, the party is increasing pressure on the CDU and SPD to embrace a non-partisan figure. Whether this model finds approval among the other parties remains open.

Observers also see the move as a response to the nationwide debate on how to deal with the AfD. By putting cooperation with changing majorities – including the AfD – on the table, Wagenknecht is deliberately positioning herself against the established parties' previous line. The coming weeks until the state election will show whether other parties take up the offer or whether there will be a clear demarcation from the AfD.

If neither the CDU nor the SPD manages to enter the state parliament, or if no viable coalition emerges, the BSW's votes in the Minister-President election could be decisive. Wagenknecht has also signaled that she prefers abstention over backing an AfD candidate – provided a party-independent figure can be found as a compromise.

The BSW's announcement is tactical but programmatically consistent: Wagenknecht wants to replace the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt and weaken the federal government in Berlin. Whether her "Magdeburg Model" has a chance in political reality depends on whether the other parties are willing to go along with it – and whether a figure can be found who is acceptable to all.