Daimler Truck raises 2026 full-year guidance, citing North American business

Background: US tariff regulations and USMCA

As early as November 1, 2025, the US Department of Commerce had approved Daimler Truck's application for recognition of US value-added content. Daimler Truck stated: "Das US-Handelsministerium hat den Antrag von Daimler Truck auf Anerkennung von US-Wertschöpfungsanteilen mit Wirkung zum 1. November 2025 genehmigt." At the same time, however: "Die vorläufigen Ergebnisse für das zweite Quartal 2026 sind von dieser Entscheidung nicht betroffen."

The updated guidance is explicitly based on the assumption of an unchanged framework of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The company writes: "Die aktualisierte Prognose basiert auf der Annahme, dass der derzeitige Rahmen des United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) unverändert bestehen bleibt, und berücksichtigt keine potenziellen Änderungen der Zollpolitik, der makroökonomischen Bedingungen oder geopolitischer Entwicklungen." The raise is therefore tied to specific political and economic conditions.

The four segments at a glance

The preliminary Q2 2026 figures are reported separately for the four segments Trucks North America, Mercedes-Benz Trucks, Daimler Buses, and Financial Services. Daimler Truck explains: "Für die einzelnen Segmente stellen sich die vorläufigen und ungeprüften Ergebnisse für das zweite Quartal 2026 wie folgt dar: Trucks North America, Mercedes-Benz Trucks, Daimler Buses, Financial Services." The company did not provide specific figures in the ad-hoc release.

Daimler Buses: Latin America and Mexico are a drag

The bus business paints a more subdued picture. Daimler Buses lowered its 2026 unit sales guidance to 20,000 to 25,000 units, down from a previous range of 25,000 to 30,000 units. As justification: "Aufgrund der anhaltend schwachen Marktsituation in Lateinamerika und Mexiko senkt Daimler Buses seine Absatzprognose für 2026 auf 20 Tsd. – 25 Tsd. Einheiten (bisher: 25 Tsd. – 30 Tsd.)." Weakness in two Latin American markets is therefore feeding directly into the segment.

At the same time, the company acknowledges that current business figures are declining. The release states: "Trotz aktuell rückläufiger Zahlen" Daimler Truck raised its outlook. The group is therefore explicitly linking the increase to the expectation of a later recovery, driven primarily by the North American truck business.

The full quarterly results and the interim report are scheduled to be released on August 7, 2026. Until then, the figures published on July 22 remain preliminary. Only then will it become clear to what extent the raised guidance is underpinned by concrete margins, cash flow figures, and order intake.

Outlook: full figures on August 7

Terms such as adjusted EBIT, adjusted return on sales (ROS), adjusted ROE, and free cash flow are defined by Daimler Truck from page 44 of the 2025 Annual Report. The company writes: "Die Begriffe bereinigtes EBIT, bereinigte Umsatzrendite (ROS), bereinigter ROE und Free Cash Flow sind ab Seite 44 des Daimler Truck Geschäftsberichts 2025 definiert." Investors must therefore refer back to the Annual Report to evaluate the key figures expected on August 7.

Daimler Truck is headquartered in Germany. The group headquarters are located at Fasanenweg 10, 70771 Leinfelden-Echterdingen. The company is listed in the DAX and, according to its own disclosures, is traded "im Regulierten Markt in Frankfurt (Prime Standard); Freiverkehr in Düsseldorf, Hamburg, Hannover, München, Stuttgart, Tradegate BSX". The ISIN is DE000DTR0CK8, the WKN is DTR0CK, and the LEI code is 529900PW78JIYOUBSR24.

Analyst views in July 2026

On the stock market, the news was received differently by analysts. Barclays Capital had already rated the stock "Overweight" on 07.07.26. The following day, 08.07.26, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. rated the Daimler Truck stock "Neutral". Later, on 17.07.26, Jefferies & Company Inc. issued a "Buy" rating.

These three ratings from July 2026 paint a mixed picture: while Barclays is overweight on the stock and Jefferies recommends buying, Goldman Sachs has a neutral stance. The guidance raise therefore comes at a time when the major houses' views are not uniformly pointing in one direction.

From the company's perspective, the guidance raise is a signal to the capital market: despite currently declining business figures, the management board sees potential in the core Trucks North America segment to close fiscal year 2026 better than previously expected. The combination of adjusted US tariff regulations and a more positive sales outlook in North America forms the basis for this.

Risks remain, however. Should the USMCA framework change, tariff policy be tightened, or macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, the raise could once again be called into question. The persistently weak market situation in Latin America and Mexico – which has already led to a guidance cut in the bus business – also remains a drag.

With the publication of the full Q2 figures on August 7, 2026, it will become clear in concrete terms whether the preliminary results support the higher guidance. Until then, it remains open to what extent adjusted EBIT, free cash flow, and order intake confirm management's more confident assessment.

Overall, the release paints the picture of a company that, in a difficult economic environment, is deliberately focusing on the North American market and adjusting its own expectations upward with regard to tariff regulations and unit sales. The lowered bus guidance makes clear at the same time that the recovery is not proceeding uniformly across the entire group.