DAX Set for Stabilization – Oil Prices and Iran Conflict Weigh on Sentiment

The source of the unease is a renewed intensification in the Middle East. Donald Trump declared a ceasefire with Iran over and ordered new attacks on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Ankara. US forces bombed targets in Iran on a second consecutive night. The fighting is connected to the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump also left the door open for further negotiations with Tehran. According to Trump, Iran continues to seek a framework agreement with the US.

Escalation in the Middle East and New Oil Price Surge

Abbas Araghtschi, on the other hand, declared that negotiations on a final agreement would not begin as long as threats continued. This standoff drove the oil price noticeably higher: a barrel of North Sea Brent cost almost 79 US dollars in early trading, compared with around 72 dollars at the beginning of the week. Oil prices have thus risen by a good ten percent since Monday.

The rising energy costs stoked inflation worries and fueled expectations that the US Federal Reserve could still raise interest rates this year. Trading on US stock exchanges ended mixed on Wednesday: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.09 percent to 52,348 points, thus ending its recent record run. The S&P 500 declined 0.28 percent to 7,482 points. The Nasdaq 100, dominated by tech heavyweights such as Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, on the other hand, edged up 0.27 percent to 29,252 points.

In Asia, stock exchanges also showed signs of stabilization on Thursday; Japan's Nikkei 225 was headed for a recovery. South Korea's KOSPI had previously suffered particularly heavily from the provisional end of the AI rally and was again approaching its lowest level in nearly two months. Market participants spoke of a noticeably clouded sentiment for AI stocks, which was felt primarily in Asia.

Investors Remain Composed Despite Risks

In view of the geopolitical tensions, investors have at the same time remained remarkably composed in recent days. Elliot Hentov, political strategist at asset manager State Street, stated: "Die erneute Eskalation der bewaffneten Auseinandersetzungen im Nahen Osten dürfte die Marktaussichten nicht grundlegend verändern." He went on to write: "Im Klartext: Keine der beiden Seiten strebt eine vollständige Wiederaufnahme des Krieges an, sodass sich die Auseinandersetzungen letztendlich wahrscheinlich beruhigen werden." Chris Weston, chief analyst at Pepperstone, also sees this expectation priced into the market: "Der Markt scheint im Moment noch davon auszugehen, dass der Konflikt letztlich deeskaliert," he said, adding: "Dennoch verstehen die Händler, dass man aufgeschlossen bleiben muss."

Market analyst Jochen Stanzl of Consorsbank took a more critical view: "Das geopolitische Risiko hat spürbar zugenommen. Monatelang entwickelte sich der Irankonflikt in eine Richtung, die auf ein diplomatisches Endspiel hindeutete. Die Ereignisse der letzten Tage gehen allerdings in die falsche Richtung." The ongoing fighting in the region was keeping the overall market environment tense, it was further stated.

Sectors Under Pressure: Airlines Lose, Energy Winners Gain

The uncertainty was also reflected in individual sectors: shares of the airlines American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines each lost up to four percent due to higher fuel costs. Shares of oil and gas producers Chevron and ConocoPhillips, on the other hand, rose by more than one percent each. Apple slipped slightly, even though the company had announced a new deal with Broadcom: under the agreement, Broadcom is to manufacture more than 15 billion chips for Apple in the US. Broadcom shares rose by four percent after the announcement of the deal, which is valued at a volume of more than 30 billion US dollars.

Investors were also focusing on the German automotive industry on Thursday. According to media reports, up to 100,000 jobs could be at stake at Volkswagen, although the group did not confirm this figure. Volkswagen spoke of impending "far-reaching" changes without naming specific job-cut numbers. The supervisory board of the Wolfsburg-based company is meeting on Thursday against the backdrop of the cost-cutting measures. In the Bundestag, a so-called Current Affairs Hour on the situation of the automotive industry is also scheduled for 3:05 p.m.

Automotive Industry in the Focus of the Bundestag

Several mid-caps delivered positive news in the meantime: SCHOTT Pharma raised its full-year targets for revenue growth and operating profitability after a strong quarter. On Tradegate, the stock gained a good eleven percent pre-market compared with the Xetra close. Canadian bank RBC then upgraded the stock to "Outperform." Charles Weston said that with the preliminary figures for the third fiscal quarter, SCHOTT Pharma had dispelled the last remaining concerns. Shares of wafer manufacturer Siltronic were also swept up in the recovery attempt on Tradegate with a gain of 3.7 percent, after the French investment bank Exane BNP raised its price target from 74 to 108 euros and set the rating to "Outperform." Deutz shares gained seven percent on Tradegate after the engine manufacturer announced the takeover of Flensburger Fahrzeugbau Gesellschaft (FFG) for around 1.6 billion euros. FFG is one of the European providers of military land and special systems and is a partner of the Bundeswehr as well as the armed forces of NATO states and Ukraine. Nordex was trading up just under five percent pre-market on Tradegate after the wind turbine manufacturer recorded significantly more orders in the second quarter than in the previous year – orders excluding the service business rose by just under one-third, while prices remained stable. Südzucker significantly increased its operating result in the first fiscal quarter and slightly raised its revenue outlook for fiscal year 2026/27; the share price initially did not react on Tradegate.