DAX slightly in positive territory ahead of Xetra start – Asian markets and trade dispute weigh on sentiment

The cues from Asia came in mixed on Tuesday. On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the 225-share Nikkei index declined 0.7 percent to 68,869 points, while the broader Topix was almost unchanged at 3,960 points. The index of the most important companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell 0.2 percent to 4,856 points, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange itself also lost 0.2 percent to 4,017 points.

Trade dispute with the US and summer weakness

The reignited trade dispute with the US is also contributing to the weak sentiment. According to the weekly outlook from DZ Bank, the stock market is currently lacking positive momentum: "Momentan fehle es anscheinend an Kurssteigerungsfantasie", it says there. The experts also pointed to seasonal summer weakness; and from the overheated US stock markets "sind kurzfristig keine Impulse zu erwarten".

In addition, US President Trump had threatened European countries with new tariffs of 100 percent should they decide to levy digital taxes. This threat had already pressured prices on Friday and is also causing uncertainty among investors at the start of the week.

Sino-Japanese tensions exacerbate the situation

Sino-Japanese tensions are also weighing on the market. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce had placed 20 Japanese entities, including subsidiaries of Mitsubishi and Fujitsu, on an export control list and accused Japan of "remilitarization". This measure heightens fears of further escalation in the Asia-Pacific region and fuels concerns about an expansion of the trade conflict.

Against this backdrop, chief market analyst Andreas Lipkow of CMC Markets is cautious. "Jede negative Nachricht wird derzeit zum Anlass für Gewinnmitnahmen genutzt, und das ist ein Zeichen, dass der Aktienmarkt vor einer Konsolidierung stehen könnte", he commented on the recent weakness. Lipkow thus sees signs of an impending sideways movement or a slight pullback.

Market observers see consolidation and summer doldrums

The state bank Helaba also sees the DAX in a phase without a clear direction. "Der deutsche Aktienindex befindet sich in einer trendlosen Verfassung", the analysts wrote. The leading index has been oscillating for more than two weeks in a range of around 24,600 to 25,200 points, without a breakout in either direction.

Market observer Jochen Stanzl of Consorsbank spoke of a classic summer lull. "Der Dax fällt ins Sommerloch", he wrote in his analysis. The summer blues has gripped the stock market, price fluctuations are subsiding, and trading volumes are declining. As a result, the market lacks both the volatility and the trading volume needed for larger movements.

The cues from Wall Street also came in subdued on Monday. The US Dow Jones index of standard stocks had closed trading on Friday barely changed at 51,876 points. The broader S&P 500 was also little changed at 7,354 points, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq shed 0.2 percent to 25,297 points. As a result, the US indices are also currently failing to provide a clear impulse for European markets.

Siemens Energy and semiconductor stocks lead the DAX

Investors are also focusing on Siemens Energy shares on Tuesday. Analyst Alasdair Leslie of Bernstein wrote that current statements from management suggest that order intake in the Gas Services and Grid Technologies divisions could be significantly above consensus expectations. This assessment boosted the stock: Siemens Energy led the DAX at midday with a gain of five percent, after the DAX overall had risen one percent to 24,875 points.

Other technology stocks also benefited from the strong prior-day Nasdaq performance in the US. Infineon shares gained almost three percent in the DAX. In the MDAX, Siltronic, Aixtron, and Jenoptik rose by up to three percent. The MDAX of mid-cap stocks moved ahead overall by 0.7 percent to 31,714 points, and the EuroStoxx 50 as the leading index of the Eurozone gained just under one percent to 6,284 points.

BaFin finding at Mutares

Semiconductor stocks benefited particularly on Tuesday from the strong prior-day Nasdaq performance. This continued the recovery of the US technology exchange from Monday into local stocks. The intraday momentum in the DAX was therefore driven primarily by cyclical tech stocks.

Possible US-Iranian talks in Qatar

Another topic during trading was the BaFin finding at Mutares. The financial supervisory authority had identified in the annex to the 2023 annual financial statements of the investment company the omission of a disclosure regarding the residual term of receivables from affiliated companies. Mutares subsequently stated that the corresponding disclosure had already been added in the published 2024 and 2025 financial statements, including a retroactive presentation as of December 31, 2023. Despite this BaFin finding, the Mutares share rose by a good three percent, as investors classified the correction as minor.

Internationally, attention on Tuesday also turned to the Strait of Hormuz. Following the recent military escalation in the strait, talks between US and Iranian representatives could take place as early as Tuesday in Qatar. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that a round of talks would take place "sobald die Voraussetzungen geschaffen sind und Einigkeit über Termin und Veranstaltungsort erzielt wurde". Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: "Der Iran hat um ein Treffen gebeten". If the talks actually materialize, this could ease the geopolitical risk situation and also affect the oil price and thus inflation.

Overall, the DAX is in a phase of disorientation: while on the one hand tech stocks benefit from the strong Wall Street and individual titles such as Siemens Energy or Infineon post significant gains, the weak Asian stock markets, the trade dispute with the US, and the seasonal summer doldrums weigh on the overall picture. The experts agree that no major impulses are to be expected in the short term – neither upward nor downward.