EU Commission Forecasts Declining Population and Growing Care Needs by 2100

By 2100, only 398.8 million people will live in Europe – "das sind 11,7 Prozent weniger als heute und entspricht etwa der Bevölkerungsgröße der zweiten Hälfte der 1970er Jahre". The drivers of this development are rising life expectancy and a falling birth rate. Specifically, the report states: "Bis 2100 steige die Lebenserwartung für Männer auf mindestens 86 Jahre und für Frauen voraussichtlich sogar auf über 90 Jahre". In 2024, average life expectancy in Europe was still 81.5 years, with women reaching an average of 84.1 years.

Ageing of Society

The share of older people in the total population is growing significantly: "Im Jahr 2050 wird dem Bericht zufolge fast einer von drei EU-Bürgern 65 Jahre oder älter sein, während es heute noch jeder fünfte ist." This shift has direct consequences for the labour market. Between 2025 and 2050, the number of people of working age (15 to 64) will fall by 1.2 million people annually according to the analysis. Currently, around 20 percent of Europeans of working age are outside the labour force, according to the report.

That high unemployment rates represent a risk is emphasised by the responsible EU Commissioner Dubravka Suica. The report states: "Etwa 20 Prozent der Menschen im erwerbsfähigen Alter innerhalb der EU arbeiten derzeit nicht". At the same time, the labour force participation of older women is rising: "Der Anteil der arbeitenden Personen zwischen 55 und 64 Jahren ist bei Frauen um 13,5 Prozentpunkte gestiegen", according to the report. Nevertheless, around eight million Europeans are neither employed nor in school or training – "Davon seien auch acht Millionen junge Menschen betroffen", it continues.

Labour Market Under Pressure

Suica describes the situation as urgent. Demographic change is altering "unsere Gesellschaften, unsere Volkswirtschaften und unsere Arbeitsmärkte", explained the responsible EU Commissioner Dubravka Suica. "Wir müssen jetzt handeln, um diesen Wandel in eine Chance zu verwandeln." The EU Commission spoke of "erhebliche Herausforderungen, darunter Fachkräftemangel, angespannte Haushaltslagen sowie erhöhter Druck auf Pflege- und Bildungssysteme" in light of the forecasts. According to the EU, member states must increase their productivity and reduce unemployment in order to offset the effects of a shrinking working-age population.

Rising Care Needs

Another focus of the report is care. By 2070, recipients of care services are expected to make up around 11 percent of the EU population – a massive increase, as the ageing society requires more support. The EU Commission also sees an opportunity in this: "Die EU-Kommission sieht in der höheren Lebenserwartung der Bevölkerung einerseits Chancen für mehr Bürgerengagement im höheren Alter und für neue Märkte mit Produkten, die auf die Bedürfnisse älterer Menschen zugeschnitten seien."

In the search for solutions, the EU Commission also points to migration: "Die Migration von Fachkräften kann der Mitteilung der EU-Kommission zufolge dazu beitragen, die Folgen der alternden Bevölkerung abzumildern." At the same time, the scientists temper expectations: "Den Wissenschaftern zufolge können einige Effekte des demografischen Wandels durch Einwanderung abgeschwächt werden. Die Auswirkung könne allerdings die Probleme einer alternden Gesellschaft ‚nicht vollständig‘ beheben". The EU itself formulates the goal of increasing productivity and employment in order to economically absorb the shrinking working-age population.

Migration as Part of the Solution

The report also contains a statement on healthy life years: "Ein Kind, das 2023 in der EU geboren wurde, kann damit rechnen, ohne schwerwiegende Erkrankungen zu leben, bis es 75,3 Jahre alt ist". These "healthy years" are an indicator of how long the next generation can be expected to participate actively in life and in the labour market. Combined with rising life expectancy, this paints a nuanced picture: people live longer, but not all of these years are free from serious illness.

Overall, the report paints the picture of a shrinking, ageing society in which many people of working age are simultaneously not in employment. The EU Commission links this diagnosis with a clear call for action to the member states. How exactly productivity increases, higher labour force participation, and targeted skilled-worker immigration should be combined remains a political decision. What is clear is that by 2100, Europe will once again count as many inhabitants as it did last in the 1970s – according to the EU Commission's calculations – with all the associated economic and social consequences.