EU Sanctions Package: German Fish Industry Warns of Alaska Pollock Supply Shortages

The 21st package of EU sanctions against Russia is, according to diplomats, to be adopted no later than July and, in addition to the import restrictions on Alaska pollock, is to include, among other things, a complete import ban on Russian cod from 2028. A complete import ban on Russian fish was also discussed at one point. However, this idea was ultimately shelved for the time being due to the possibility of significant negative consequences for European businesses and citizens.

Political Background and Sanctions Framework

In the past, the EU has already largely restricted imports of oil and gas from Russia and imposed import bans on goods such as cement, wood, diamonds, and gold. A spokesperson for the Ministry of Agriculture said the German government supports measures that help deprive Russia of the economic basis to continue its war of aggression against Ukraine, which violates international law.

The extent of the dependence is illustrated by figures from the Federal Statistical Office: in the past year alone, 93,500 tons of frozen fillets worth around 228 million euros were imported into the country. Germany is the largest buyer of Russian Alaska pollock fillet in the EU.

Dependence on Alaska Pollock Is Growing

According to the Thünen Institute, which falls under the remit of the Ministry of Agriculture, Russia is the fourth-largest producer of marine fish worldwide. From 2020 to 2024, Russia's share of Alaska pollock fillet imports rose from 15 to 45 percent, the Thünen Institute writes in a dossier. Alaska pollock is caught, according to the Institute, mainly in the Gulf of Alaska, the Sea of Okhotsk between Russia and Japan, and the Bering Sea.

The Institute therefore warns that the measures now planned could have significant impacts on the supply and prices of products as well as on jobs in the German fish processing industry. The research institute's dossier states that the industry is considering offsetting the shortfall with other fish species – for example, freshwater fish from aquaculture such as pangasius. However, a full compensation will not be possible, either in terms of quantity, product form, or price.

Thünen Institute Warns of Supply Shortages

According to the Thünen Institute, only US fisheries produce comparable volumes besides Russia. However, these are bound by long-term supply contracts and could not substitute for a loss of Russian supplies, it says. The Institute also expects that the fish no longer purchased by the EU from Russian sources will then be delivered to other parts of the world, because demand for affordable Alaska pollock already exceeds supply.

Germany is home to the world's largest fish finger factories. Even after the end of the Ukraine war, fish fingers would then come from the Far East and not from domestic production, the Thünen Institute warns. In the dossier "Is a Fish Finger Crisis Looming?" it states: "In sum, the German fish industry and thus the supply of the European market with affordable fish products would be irreversibly harmed."

Industry and Ministry Review the Proposal

The German Fish Industry and Fish Wholesale Association said that, as an industry association, it is currently reviewing the European Commission's proposal for the 21st sanctions package. The Ministry of Agriculture is currently reviewing, together with industry stakeholders and the scientific community, the potential impacts of the EU Commission's proposal to sanction the import of Russian fish.

Germany-based producers such as Iglo and Frosta initially declined to comment on the planned EU sanctions and the potential consequences when approached by the Deutsche Presse-Agentur.