Hope for Middle East Ceasefire Supports Wall Street Expectations

In geopolitical terms, according to the report, Qatar has proposed a ten-day ceasefire as well as a suspension of shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. The proposal comes against the backdrop of the ongoing military confrontation between the United States and Iran: both sides have reportedly continued their attacks for the ninth consecutive night, and ships in the strait have also been attacked. If the proposal were to take hold, it could increase investors' risk appetite and provide relief in particular for the oil and shipping industries.

Commodities Between Risk and Safety

On the commodity markets, the tensions were reflected directly. According to the report, the North Sea benchmark Brent temporarily rose 1.4 percent to $90.46, while the U.S. benchmark WTI also traded 1.3 percent higher at $84.30 per barrel. Later in Asian trading, however, WTI gave back 0.3 percent to $82.98, and Brent slipped 0.5 percent to $88.81. The gold price benefited from its status as a "safe haven" and gained 1.3 percent to $4,057 per troy ounce. Silver rose 4.3 percent to $58.85, and platinum climbed 2.2 percent to $1,628.63.

Movements on the stock markets were moderate on Monday. The Dow Jones index of blue-chip stocks closed 0.6 percent lower at 51,839 points, the Nasdaq edged minimally lower to 25,508 points. The broad-based S&P 500 lost 0.2 percent to 7,443 points. In Asia, the MSCI index for stocks outside Japan rose slightly by 0.3 percent. Germany's benchmark DAX had already closed 0.1 percent higher the previous day at 24,846 points and, according to broker IG's estimate, is expected to start Tuesday nearly unchanged – broker IG is currently pricing the DAX at 24,832 points.

Cues from Asia and Europe

A friendly opening was shaping up on Wall Street for Tuesday. The futures contract on the Nasdaq-100 climbed 1.2 percent, and the future on the S&P 500 gained 0.5 percent. It was said that technology stocks in particular could see a stronger move upward. According to the report, news drove Nvidia, Intel, and AMD to pre-market gains of up to 6.0 percent. Background factors included two "Outperform" ratings from Bernstein Research for Nvidia on June 29, 2026 and on June 8, 2026.

Currency and Bond Markets

On the bond markets, U.S. yields were little changed. The two-year U.S. Treasury stood at 4.21 percent, the five-year at 4.32 percent. On the currency market, according to the report, participants are less sensitive to geopolitical developments and are focusing more on monetary policy: EUR/USD was at 1.1416, EUR/JPY at 185.79, EUR/CHF at 0.9256, and EUR/GBP at 0.8519. AUD/USD was at 0.7014, USD/JPY at 162.74, GBP/USD at 1.3397, USD/CNY at 6.7656, and USD/CNH at 6.7667. Bitcoin gained 1.6 percent to $66,347.90.

Also in focus on Tuesday was the start of the earnings season beyond the technology companies. General Motors and 3M were scheduled to report their quarterly results on Tuesday, followed by Alphabet, IBM, and Tesla on Wednesday, and Intel on Thursday. Following strong business momentum in the first half of the year, 3M raised its annual targets after profit and revenue rose in the second quarter. The stock subsequently climbed 6.2 percent. General Motors, on the other hand, raised its EBIT forecast for the full year once again, but the stock fell 0.4 percent. The automaker continues to expect gross tariff costs of between $2.5 billion and $3.5 billion for the year.

Earnings Season: General Motors and 3M in Focus

In the pharmaceutical sector, a lawsuit caused movement: Novo Nordisk is suing U.S. rival Eli Lilly over misleading advertising, and the Novo Nordisk stock subsequently lost 0.6 percent. It was also announced that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), according to a report, intends to raise prices for both advanced and older chips by up to ten percent starting in 2027. This news further reinforced optimism in the semiconductor sector.

Outside the earnings season, a legal obstacle in the U.S. media sector attracted attention: The $81 billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery by Paramount has hit a legal hurdle. A federal court in California has issued a temporary restraining order that temporarily prohibits the companies from completing the transaction. Meanwhile, the court is reviewing whether the merger should remain blocked until a cartel lawsuit brought by a dozen U.S. states is resolved. The stocks of Warner Bros. Discovery and Paramount Skydance nevertheless rose by 0.3 and 0.9 percent respectively.

Cartel Dispute Over Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery

Also part of the background to market expectations is the question of how much the U.S. earnings season can deliver. According to LSEG data, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to post earnings growth of 26 percent year-over-year for the second quarter. Peter Tuz, president of asset manager Chase Investment Counsel, sees it similarly: "Everyone is waiting for earnings season to really get going," he said. If companies meet expectations, that is likely to further support optimism in the markets – otherwise, a correction threatens.

In summary, the picture is of a market balancing between geopolitical risks and economic confidence: The Middle East remains a factor of uncertainty, but the prospect of a ceasefire, a strong earnings season, and monetary policy stability are giving investors arguments for rising prices. Whether the trading day confirms the confident cues will be seen with the first quotations on Wall Street.

In Frankfurt, investors are likely to focus first on the U.S. cues and further news from the Middle East on Tuesday. The DAX is expected to be largely unchanged according to IG's estimate. Should the U.S. earnings season surprise positively and Qatar's ceasefire proposal take more concrete shape, the German benchmark index could also receive fresh impulses over the course of the day.