How the US Midterm Elections Could Affect the War Against Iran and Foreign Policy

Congress and Iran: Limited Scope for Action

The impact of such a blockade would, however, be limited. Congress would not only have to prevent further escalation of the war, but could also manage without its approval or with fewer resources, as O'Hanlon appears to suggest. His statement therefore refers to a possible brake, not to comprehensive control over the administration's foreign policy.

The president is also under considerable pressure in the election. Donald Trump and the Republicans must contend with the dissatisfaction of many voters. Alongside foreign policy issues, general inflation and high living costs play a central role. Both contribute to the dissatisfaction that could influence the outcome of the midterm elections.

Inflation as a Campaign Issue

The connection between the issues is immediate: A victory for the Republicans would strengthen political support for the administration's current course, while a change in Congress could increase the scope for a policy shift. The extent to which the result affects the war against Iran will also depend on which factions hold how many seats in the future.

Domestic issues such as energy security can also play an indirect role. The war against Iran affects energy prices and, therefore, the cost of living. For voters already struggling with general inflation, developments in foreign policy can thus become a concrete everyday concern.

Abdul El-Sayed, who appears in reports as a figure in the domestic political debate, is among those whose positioning could help determine voting decisions. The parties must balance supporting their respective foreign policy courses with addressing the economic concerns of their voters.

The midterm elections take place on November 3, 2026, the same day that the initially important report about the elections' impact on US foreign policy was published. Once the results are clear, it will become evident whether Congress will actually make greater use of its funding powers than it has so far and whether the opposition can gain broader support for the political course in Washington.

Potential Consequences of the Election Result

In assessing the outcome, the decisive factor is what consequences it entails. According to O'Hanlon, Congress's power in the Iran war is limited. His assessment that the legislature could potentially prevent a severe escalation by refusing to provide funding nevertheless describes a realistic way in which the election could have an immediate impact on foreign policy.

Voting decisions therefore fall at a time when foreign policy and economic issues are closely intertwined. The war against Iran, the cost of living in the United States, and the role of Congress form a complex set of issues around which the parties are competing for support for the coming legislative session.